Rudd's hypocrisy, News Corp loss, Westfield, state borrowing, capital deluge and much more


February 2, 2010

Dear Mayne Reporters,

First up this week, click here to read a very hard hitting story I've written for this afternoon's Crikey edition on Kevin Rudd, Frank Lowy, Rupert Murdoch, extreme capitalism, greed, tax havens, political donations and extraordinary hypocrisy.

And have a listen to this very rigorous debate with The Age's Michelle Grattan and The Australian's Lenore Taylor this morning on Fran Kelly's Radio National Breakfast program.

Rupert show the way in writing down goodwill

Rupert Murdoch unveiled News Corp's December quarter result at 8am this morning and we took in all of his gloomy but fascinating conference call at 8.30am. If you've got time, have a listen.

The net result was a loss of $US6.4 billion after the company took $US8.4 billion in write-downs on its intangible assets, primarily related to US television licences and newspapers.

This means News Corp now holds the top two positions on our list of record loss-makers yet, incredibly, not a single analyst or journalist on today's conferencve call bothered to raise the issue of the loss, Rupert's $US28 million salary or whether all those corporate jets will be included in the cost cutting drive.

Precisely which newspapers took the hit? Was it The Wall Street Journal which cost about $US5 billion in 2007 or was it The Courier Mail which News Corp paid a ridiculous price to the Murdoch family for in 2003-04 as part of the move to America.

News Corp shares have tanked 6% to a 10 year-plus low of $10.50 this morning, which means the newly slashed balance sheet is still over the odds. Investors are very nervous about the big 30% profit downgrade although projected earnings of $US3.5 billion in 2008-09 is still very solid.

Intangibles have been cut from $US14.46 billion to $US8.9 billion and goodwill is down from $US18.6 billion to $14.37 billion.

The total equity has been slashed from $US28.62 billion to $US20 billion yet News Corp's market capitalisation is today down to almost down to $25 billion or $US16 billion.

However, Rupert Murdoch, his board and audit firm Ernst & Young have done precisely the right thing in taking this 30% write-down of balance sheet values. It recognises the new reality. The big question now is whether all those other Australian companies with inflated balance sheets will do the same?

We've updated our list tracking companies which are trading at huge discounts to net assets. Stand by for the likes of Wesfarmers, Fairfax, Macquarie Office, Goodman International and many others to reveal an amazing deluge of red ink like we've never seen before over the rest of February.

State government borrowing programs part of mad scramble for limited cash

The Australian Office of Financial Management sold $600 million worth of 6 years bonds between 10.15am and 10.30am this morning and managed to get it away at an attractive 3.92%. Not bad, but let's see if the price stays so cheap with the remaining $23.4 billion to be borrowed by the Feds before June 30.

The Rudd Government is now competing for limited cash with all those desperate corporates raising equity and all those banks hitting the international markets with their government guarantees, but just how much capacity is left if things get really bad.

The Future Fund's December 31 update reveals it has already ploughed $9 billion into bonds and has only $24 billion in cash left, which is barely higher than the forecast Federal Government deficit of $22 billion for this year.

And Australia's foreign reserves are already massively below most comparable countries as this Wikipedia list shows. As of November, we were down to just $US30 billion which was ranked 42 in the world and leaves us behind the likes of Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico, Libya, India, Perus and Romania.

Meanwhile, here is a rundown of the borrowing challenges faced by the various state borrowing authorities in the current financial year:

Treasury Corporation of Victoria: $4.35 billion in 2008-09

Queensland Treasury Corp: raised a staggering $13.8 billion in 2007-08, lifting the overall debt figure to $43 billion and was orginally projecting a record $16.3 billion for 2008-09.

NSW Treasury Corporation: a 2008-09 funding requirement of $6.8 billion but all but $4.9 billion was pre-borrowed last financial year in a sensible move.

WA Treasury Corporation: latest update as of December 31 forecasts record $6.8 billion borrowing program for 2008-09.

SA Financing Authority: $8.7 billion in loans outstanding at the end of last financial year and is now expected to borrow more than $2 billion this financial year.

Surely, this huge borrowing load just makes it completely reckless for the Federal Government to join the party with a $22 billion deficit this year, rising to $35 billion next financial year.

The media and many financial commentators simply don't realise the huge $35 billion borrowing challenge faced by the states this year and the fact that they've barely been able to raise a dime since the Federal Govenment guaranteed offshore bank borrowing.

Why would investors risk lending money to a debt-addicted state government when they can borrow from the banks using the Federal Government's guarantee.

Rather than introducing this $42 billion stimulus package, the Feds should be guaranteeing state debt and focusing on helping the states deliver their existing infrastructure programs.

Listed companies chasing scarce capital

In the past 6 months there has an unprecedented amount of capital raising by ASX listed companies, draining cash from investors. This is a quick summary of the bigger raisings which are now in huge competition with the Federal Government if any more capital is needed to pay down debt:

Wesfarmers: up to $8 billion in 12 months.
Westfield: $2.9 billion placement at just $10.50 a share this week with Lowy family not involved.
NAB: $3 billion late last year.
Westpac: $3 billion late last year.
QBE: $2.1 billion to fund acquisitions in November.
CBA: $2 billion raised at $26 a share in December.
CSL: $2 billion to fund US acquisition
GPT: $1.6 billion with Singapore government underwriting.
Suncorp: $900 million emergency raising still not completed.
Newcrest: $750m on 2 February.
Transurban: $659 million raising from Canadian pension fund to pay down debt.
Macquarie Office: $508 million at knock-down price of 20c.
Qantas: $500 million on 3 February, causing shares to tank.
Mirvac: $500 million emergency raising last year.
ConnectEast: completed $450 million emergency raising late last year but shares still falling.
Lend Lease: $302 million this week.
Stockland: $300 million placement last October.
Transfield: $267 million emergency raising late last year.

With NAB producing another profit downgrade today and Suncorp teetering, you have to ask precisely what the Federal Government will have in reserve if they have to start bailing out the banks directly as is occuring all over the world.

Media companies sinking under debt

Fairfax's market capitalisation is down to just $1.8 billion as it sinks under $2.5 billion in debt. The audited accounts claim the company is worth $5 billion and has intangible assets of $6.3 billion. Time for the big write-down and further job cuts, it seems.

The Fairfax share price has crashed from $4.20 to a pathetic $1.11 over the past year. And yet there was The Age's Michelle Grattan on Fran Kelly's Breakfast program this morning talking away about politics as if national debt levels don't matter.

Journalists should know better than most about the evils of excess debt given that Seven, Nine, Ten, Fairfax, APN and Macquarie Media are all suffering varying degrees of debt distress. Rupert Murdoch's News Corp might owe almost $20 billion, but he was right to claim this morning that his empire has the strongest balance sheet of any media company in the world.

Has Queensland Labor really dropped $20m in Suncorp?

The Suncorp emergency rights issue immediately reminded us of this column in The Sunday Age last year which revealed that Labor Holdings, the Queensland Labor Party's investment company set up in the days when Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd were running affairs north of The Tweed, owns 1.18 million shares in Suncorp.

These were worth $26 million when Suncorp shares peaked at $22 but Labor Holdings is now being asked to stump up more than $1 million to support this emergency $900 million Suncorp capital raising which will probably leave the party with a stake worth less than $6 million. Oh dear.

Stocks trading at less than 50c

Who would have ever thought we would see the day where 94 of the stocks currently in the ASX300 index would trade below a miserable 50c. Here's the full list documenting the trading range over the past 12 months:

Abacus Group: the range was $1.69 to 15c.
Aditya Birla: the range was $3 to 9.8c.
Admiralty Resources: the range was $1.69 to 0.8c.
Albidon: the range was $5.10 to 4.9c.
Alliance Resources: the range was $1.67 to 28.5c.
Apex Minerals: the range was $1.05 to 20c.
APN Euro Retail: the range was 89c to 5c.
Asciano: the range was $6 to 49.5c.
Aspen Group: the range was $1.91 to 36c.
Atlas Iron: the range was $4.37 to 40.5c.
Australian Pharmaceutical: the range was $1.82 to 35c.
Austar United: the range was $1.64 to 60c.
Bannerman Resources: the range was $2.79 to 22.5c.
Becton Property Group: the range was $3 to 4.3c.
Biota Holdings: the range was $1.38 to 29c.
Boart Longyear: the range was $2.39 to 17c.
Boom Logistics: the range was $1.35 to 45c.
Brockman Resources: the range was $3.21 to 40c.
Abacus Group: the range was $1.69 to 15c.
Cape Lambert Iron: the range was 47.6c to 15.5c.
Carbon Energy: the range was 74c to 19.5c.
Carnarvon Petroleum: the range was 80c to 23c.
CBH Resources: the range was 44c to 2c.
Centro Property Group: the range was 71c to 4c.
Centro Retail: the range was 60c to 5c.
Challenger Diversified Properties: the range was 92c to 39c.
Charter Hall Group: the range was $1.76 to 23c.
Citigold corp: the range was 44c to 15c.
Cockatoo Coal: the range was $1.23 to 19c.
Compass Resources: the range was $3.25 to 12c.
Connect East: the range was $1.38 to 45c.
Deep Yellow: the range was 38c to 9c.
Eastern Star Gas: the range was 93c to 19c.
Emeco Holdings: the range was $1.29 to 16c.
Energy World Corp: the range was $1.47 to 17.5c.
Envestra: the range was 92c to 29c.
FKP Property Group: the range was $5.20 to 38c.
Galileo Japan Trust: the range was 82c to 4c.
Gindalbie Metals: the range was $1.87 to 32c
Giralia Resources: the range was $2.84 to 30c.
Goodman Group: the range was $4.68 to 46c.
GRD Ltd: the range was $1.71 to 25c.
Great Southern: the range was $1.87 to 12c.
HFA Holdings: the range was $1.40 to 3.9c.
IBA Health Group: the range was 83c to 40c.
Imdex Ltd: the range was $2.50 to 24c.
Industrea: the range was 63c to 11c.
ING Office: the range was $1.49 to 44c.
IING Real Estate: the range was $1.10 to 4.8c.
Jabiru Metals: the range was $1.04 to 10c.
Kagara: the range was $5.88 to 29c.
Lend Lease Prime: the range was 23c to 15c.
Lynas Corp: the range was $1.65 to 14c.
Macmahon Holdings: the range was $1.92 to 30c.
Macquarie Country: the range was $1.67 to 17c.
Macquarie DDR Trust: the range was 82c to 3c.
Macquarie Office: the range was $1.26 to 18c.
Marion Energy: the range was $1.41 to 11c.
Minara Resources: the range was $3.97 to 18c.
Mincor Resources: the range was $3.85 to 45c.
Mineral Deposits: the range was $1.16 to 28c.
Mintails Ltd: the range was 65c to 2c.
Mirvac Industrial: the range was 69c to 8c.
Molopo Australia: the range was $2.09 to 41c.
Moly Mines: the range was $3.99 to 17c.
Mount Gibson Iron: the range was $3.78 to 19c.
Murchison Metals: the range was $4.90 to 48c.
Nexus Energy: the range was $1.97 to 31c.
Nido Petroleum: the range was 64c to 7c.
NRW Holdings: the range was $2.63 to 13c.
Oceangold: the range was $3.20 to 15c.
Pacific Brands: the range was $3 to 31c.
Pan Australia: the range was $1.25 to 8c.
PaperlinX: the range was $2.70 to 42c.
Perilya: the range was $2.04 to 8c.
Platinum Australia: the range was $3.15 to 36c.
PMP Ltd: the range was $1.80 to 38c.
Resolute Minerals: the range was $2.50 to 36c.
Rivercity Motor: the range was 73c to 9c.
ROC Oil: the range was $2.68 to 44c.
Service Stream: the range was $1.74 to 43c.
Specialty Fashion Group: the range was $1.68 to 20c.
St Barbara: the range was 91c to 18c.
Strike Resources: the range was $3.10 to 25c.
Sundance Resources: the range was 51c to 7c.
Sunland Group: the range was $3.85 to 50c.
Tap Oil: the range was $2.21 to 49c.
Timbercorp: the range was $1.38 to 8.9c.
Tishman Speyer: the range was $1.73 to 9c.
United Minerals: the range was $2.80 to 30c.
UXC Ltd: the range was $1.90 to 40c.
Valad Property Group: the range was $1.22 to 3c.
Virgin Blue Holdings: the range was $1.57 to 25c.
Wattyl Ltd: the range was $2.52 to 50c.

Putting Westfield on notice for treating small shareholders badly

This email was sent to a couple of Westfield heavies two days ago:

Hi Mark and Maureen,

As a small investor in almost 700 Australian listed companies, I keep a close eye on capital raisings.

Over the years I've worked up this
shame file of companies that do selective placements to institutional investors without a follow through share purchase plan on the same terms for retail investors.

Since taking up this campaign, the vast majority of companies have adopted best practice. Witness NAB, CBA, Qantas, Newcrest, Tabcorp, Bluescope, Bank of Queensland and Bendigo Bank over the past three months.

And then along comes Westfield with a selective placement and no opportunity for retail investors to participate.

Please reconsider this decision promptly. If not, I will run for the Westfield board on a platform of retail shareholder equity at the forthcoming AGM. I look forward to your reply and hope we can get Westfield to commit to best practice forthwith.

Yours Sincerely
Stephen Mayne
Westfield shareholder

There has been no reply as yet.

That's all for now.

Do ya best, Stephen Mayne

* The Mayne Report is a multi-media governance website published by Stephen Mayne with occasional email editions. To unsubscribe from the emails click here.