Preferences revealed, sleazy deals, Cleary, questioning Bob Brown, The Age, soaring debt, videos, Cornwall and then some
November 15, 2010
Dear Mayne Report Readers,
the prospects of pulling off an unlikely victory as an independent candidate in the state election received a strong boost yesterday with the publication of all the Group Voting Tickets for the 8 upper house regions.
When briefing independent candidates last Sunday, the electoral commissioner Steve Tully predicted 93% of all votes would be cast above the line so these group deals are absolutely vital.
The Northern Metropolitan Group Voting Tickets reveal we've received a first preference allocation from three of the 10 groups, namely Family First, the Greens and an Independent Carers group who also has the benefit of being first on the ballot paper.
We've got one of the best preference flows of upper house Group in Victoria, with the possible exception of Country Alliance in Northern Victoria.
William Bowe, the respected PollBludger blogger on Crikey, has already produced this comprehensive analysis and had this to say about Northern Metropolitan:
With very few exceptions, preferences have been allocated in such a way as to create neat left-right divides, in which each bloc will win either three or two seats and divide the spoils between them. The only flies in this ointment are Northern Metropolitan, where preferences to and from Stephen Mayne are all over the shop, and Northern Victoria, where the Country Alliance seem to have charmed all and sundry, including the Sex Party.
We've shown you ours, no show us yours Madam Sex Party
The explanation for our "all over the shop" support can be found here where we've publically revealed all preference agreements. Two of them were linked to the Victorian Senate contest at the Federal election, hence the favourable flows from unexpected quarters.
Given the slanging match which is unfolding over preference deals, all other candidates and parties really should follow this full disclosure lead and reveal their own deals.
For instance, both major parties have clearly signed up to a deal with The Sex Party. What would Archbishop Pell say to Tony Abbott when he fesses up to this one? Antony Green described it as follows on his election blog last night:
Labor would lose its second seat in South Metropolitan to the Liberal party, a result made more likely by the Sex Party listing the Liberals ahead of Labor, a deal that perhaps explains the Liberal Party's strange decision to give the Sex Party its second preferences in Northern metropolitan region.
The Sex Party is clearly putting all its eggs in the Northern Metropolitan basket to try and get Fiona Patten, the partner of party founder Robbie Swan, over the line. However, to pull this off, she'll need to increase her Senate vote by almost 50% to about 3.5% and then rely on about 1% from me and the Liberals or the Greens having a bad day such that she can get ahead of either of them.
It shouldn't be discounted but remains an outside prospect. Fiona has been profiled in the Herald Sun today and I've lobbed the first comment about floods of Catholic voters potentially dumping the major parties on hearing they are both directing first preferences in Northern Metropolitan to the p#rn industry.
What it will take to win in Northern Metro
With favourable preferences in place, here's what we need to get through to knock off Labor's Nathan Murphy and win the final spot in Northern Metro:
(a) poll more than 1% and finish ahead of the Independent Carers group who will almost certainly poll above 0.5% given they benefit from the donkey vote.
(b) with Carer preferences, get ahead of either the Sex Party or Family First. This is more likely to be Family First because the Sex Party will pick up an estimated 0.2% of the vote from their Country Alliance preference deal and should benefit from all the publicity about their Group Preference arrangement with the major parties.
(c) have our vote plus the Carers, Sex Party and Family First exceed the rival bloc of DLP/Christian Democrats/Country Alliance.
(d) hope the Liberal vote doesn't fall from a surplus of 6.6% in 2006 to a lower figure which could be passed by the combined vote of DLP, Christian Democrats and Country Alliance, once the Sex Party are eliminated.
(e) with 4 left, finish ahead of either the Greens or the Liberals/CDP.
(f) with three left, not have the Green vote surge and the Labor vote collapse such that Labor is eliminated and elect the second Green.
(g) avoid accumulated group voting ticket leakage through below the line voting all the way through this process.
Getting through (b) is easily the hardest task which is why we need volunteers to help distribute the 100,000 how to vote cards we're getting printed this week. That said, a primary vote north of 1.5% might be enough to get over the line, so if you'd like to volunteer, please email Paula@maynereport.com.
Labor jumps into bed with gun-toting climate deniers
Stand by for the Green vote to jump in the inner city as voters feel sorry for the way Liberal and Labor have ganged up against them.
Whilst Labor is claiming they are preferencing the Greens ahead of the Liberals everywhere, this hasn't stopped them going to the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria and Eastern Victoria.
The Age's Adam Morton revealed some of the policy pay-offs on November 11.
Labor did something similar in 2006 when Country Alliance associated independent Rita Bentley got Evan Thornley over the line in Southern Metropolitan in exchange for some policy concessions. It's all pretty grubby stuff and Labor should suffer a modest primary vote hit from those concerned about environmental issues who were contemplating a switch to the Greens.
Here's what our cartoonist Mark Cornwall makes of the situation:
Northern Metro video launches
We'll be rollling out a series of videos this week and here's one we shot on Friday in front of the Tankerville Arms Hotel in Fitzroy. I fondly remember watching my best man's band play at The Tank. These days there are no bands, only poker machines, and that is part of pitch in Northern Metropolitan. Click on the image below to find out more:
Questioning Bob Brown about surging state debt at the Press Club
Like many former Liberal wets, I don't mind parts of the Greens social agenda and hope they do well on November 27. However, the most troubling aspect of their platform is financial management and industrial relations. They are just too left wing, it seems.
Whilst it wasn't hostile, check out this quite pointed question I asked Bob Brown at the Melbourne Press Club on Friday about debt management:
Tim Costello and Nick Xenophon urge everyone to attend pokies public forum on November 23
Check out this video shot by Tim Costello, Nick Xenophon and a range of other participants involved in an upcoming pokies forum in Melbourne for the state election. Gaming Minister Tony Robinson and his shadow Michael O'Brien have been invited and the details are as follows:
Date: Tuesday 23rd November
Time: 9am – 11am
Venue: Cathedral Room
Cardinal Knox Centre
383 Albert St
East Melbourne
Around the grounds on the pokies
Check out this package of past encounters and details on the 2010 board tilt with pokies giant Woolworths.
Check out this interview with Senator Nick Xenophon about why the pokies matter in this state election.
We've been twittering like mad about preferences today, so click below to get on board
Defending Fairfax from virulent attacks and not getting much of a run
In the last update sent on November 11, we mentioned the extraordinary attacks on Fairfax and its broadsheets by Michael Burd and Daniel Small at last week's Fairfax AGM. The allegations were flying so thick and fast about alleged anti-Israel bias, that I felt obliged to get up and defend press freedom. We've now packaged up the audio here. The voice you heard at the end calling for an end to my "speeches", was Michael Burd, who was clearly miffed with the intervention.
That said, stepping up and defending Fairfax hasn't exactly generated any coverage for our Northern Metropolitan tilt in the print edition of The Age.
We expect to be banned by the Herald Sun as a result of criticising Rupert Murdoch at the News Corp AGM, but The Age approach has been a tad frustrating.
I gave The Sunday Age's Melissa Fyfe some grabs about preference negotiations on Saturday afternoon and they made it into the
online version of her story as follows:
Shareholder activist and upper house Northern Metropolitan Region candidate Stephen Mayne yesterday accused Labor of doing a ''sleazy deal'' with a party that ''aims to trash the environment through four-wheel-driving, shooting and the like''.
''Inner-city Labor voters, especially those concerned about the environment, will be very concerned to know Labor is preferencing Country Alliance ahead of the Greens in a number of upper house regions,'' he said.
Mr Reece said the ALP was locked in negotiations with a number of parties and did not wish to comment on the Country Alliance. Russell Bate, chairman of the Country Alliance, also declined to speak about his preference deals with Labor.
When the paper version landed on the lawn yesterday morning, these words had been cut. Oh well.
Labor preference allocators prefer the better half
Labor and the Country Alliance both clearly objected to the comments before preference tickets were lodged and we duly dropped a few spots down their rankings. Country Alliance reckon only the Greens are worse, whilst Labor only put us ahead of the Liberals and Christian Democrats. Anticipating as much, Country Alliance finished stone motherless last on our ticket. The hunting and shooting brigade can send their votes elsewhere.
Labor also went to the trouble of reversing our ticket and preferencing Paula at number 22 and me at 23. Check it out at the bottom of the Northern Metro cards.
This prompted the following email to ALP state secretary Nick Reece earlier this morning:
Hi Nick, my wife is flattered that Labor has preferenced her ahead of me on your Northern Metro ticket.
She's a good Italian migrant, 10 pound ticket, Whitlam era etc so claims your decision is utterly appropriate.
As for me...I'll get over it.
Best wishes, Stephen Mayne
Fiscal responsibility debate and the letter The Age declined to run
I sat next to The Age's Tim Colebatch inside the ABC television control room as Victorian Treasurer John Lenders and his shadow Kim Wells slugged it out for 11 minutes on Stateline last Friday night. It wasn't much of a debate.
Tim didn't cover the discussion on Saturday, but instead produced this comment piece talking up the strength of Victoria's public finances.
Having failed to mention the state's surging debt, I submitted the following letter to the editor for publication:
Tim Colebatch claims ("Political bickering aside, plunging into deficit is no option", The Age, 13/11) Victoria has had "18 years of conservative fiscal management" and there's no way Ted Baillieu or John Brumby would allow spending to exceed revenue.
I was press secretary to Treasurer Alan Stockdale in the first two years of the Kennett Government and am now an independent candidate for the upper house genuinely concerned about soaring state debt.
Gross debt fell from $33 billion to $12 billion during the 7 years of Coalition Government. Whilst Steve Bracks maintained reasonable financial discipline in the early Labor years, the budget has careered out of control since John Brumby stepped up from Treasurer to Premier.
Indeed, the Treasury Corporation of Victoria website confirms that gross state debt has almost doubled to $24 billion over the past two years and the last state budget predicted state debt would hit $39 billion by 2014.
It's puzzling that journalists and politicians of all persuasions continue to claim Victoria is in surplus by ignoring capital spending on things like hospitals and roads.
By way of contrast, the Federal Government admits that its 2009-10 budget outcome was a $54.8 billion cash deficit because this includes all capital spending such as the school halls program and new defence equipment.
It's time for some truth in financial reporting as the big three parties go on a reckless spending spree.
Tim was sent the letter as a courtesy and he fired back an angry reply referring to this long piece written shortly before the 2002 Victorian election which we claimed at the time demolished the Brumby-Bracks record on financial management.
Unfortunately, the letter didn't make the cut in today's paper so the debate won't go any further, it seems. However, that 2002 piece is well worth another read.
Even RBA governor Glenn Stevens feels the need to downplay public debt
It was very strange to hear Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens make the following statement during the federal election campaign: "There is virtually no net public debt in the country at all in contrast to much of the developed world."
Whilst Rupert Murdoch's flagship newspaper Down Under, The Australian, loves to beat up on Labor governments irrespective of the facts sometimes, this recent splash pointing out that state government debt is projected to top $240 billion was a worthwhile piece of journalism.
I bumped into former Bendigo Bank managing director Rob Hunt in Bendigo two weeks ago and congratulated him on landing the tough job of chairing Treasury Corporation of Victoria, our state debt management authority.
He was told that debt disclosure by TCV is very poor. The Federal Government's own debt management website puts the gross debt figure at $152 billion and the bond issues continue to come as follows since our last edition:
Wednesday, November 10, 2010: $500m tender of 12 year bonds expiring in July 2022 were sold for an average yield of 5.43% and was over-subscribed 4.5 times.
Spend $50 for a season's ticket that helps keeps the directors and pollies honest
The coming weeks will be a very interesting time with the Australian AGM season and the Victorian election but things like contesting the state election and flying to New York to tackle Rupert Murdoch don't come cheap.
Therefore, why not sign up for a $50 AGM season ticket and you will get exclusive email updates on the various battles as 1600 Australian public companies hold their AGMs and the Victorian election unfolds.
Alternatively, email Paula@maynereport.com and offer to volunteer to hand out on election day and you'll receive a free subscription.
If you'd like to support robust political and shareholder activism and get an inside look at what should be a fascinating period, click here to purchase your season ticket that will take you through until the end of 2010.
What should Phil Cleary do in Brunswick?
Crikey ran the following story last Friday: Death in Brunswick for Jane Garrett and the ALP
With the Liberals now directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens everywhere, Green success in the inner city is being discounted.
The Age has splashed today claiming the Liberal move has the effect of "virtually destroying the minor party's chances of winning seats in the lower house".
Others are not so sure because Liberal voters may protest the move and it will almost certainly further increase the Green primary vote.
Antony Green has come up with the bizarre prediction that the Liberals may not hand out at all in three strongest inner city seats for the Greens. With $3 of public funding coming from every voter who supports the Liberals in both houses, this is hard to believe.
William Bowe has run some fascinating figures on his Crikey blog estimating the difference the Liberal decision makes is 5-8% on the 2PP vote. That's very meaningful and it looks like even Melbourne could stay with the ALP, but only just.
For Phil Cleary, he needs to work out which way to jump with his preferences in Brunswick.
Frankly, the major parties are looking pretty cynical at the moment and if Cleary wants to maximise his primary vote, he probably should stick with his mooted preference arrangement with the Greens.
The voters like convictions politicians in the inner city. If Cleary has been railing against Spring Street and Labor's planning system, his convictions won't look so flash if he suddenly does a preference deal with a tired government carrying plenty of baggage.
Incidentally, Cleary's flyer going around Brunswick is being well received. The seasoned campaigner is making quite a splash and may do a little better than some of his critics suggest.
The Cornwall collection
Former Fairfax and Crikey cartoonist Mark Cornwall has been contributing to The Mayne Report since March 2009. Here is a collection of his best cartoons and check out his latest animation:
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Support our long term tailor Kumar Advani
The Mayne Report Rich List
BRW magazine does a great job with its various Australian Rich Lists but we've broadened their efforts to track any Australian who has ever been worth more than $10 million. We began the process of building the list in early 2008 where we had an initial 327 names. Now, after much research, we've got more than 1500 names with those who've fallen back below $10 million italicised.
It was also heartening to be told at the Fairfax AGM last week that BRW still makes money. Doubt it makes much, but that Rich List franchise remains popular.
Even during the state election, the 1500 names on our Rich List is often the most popular page on our site. We love your tips coming through on Richies and if you want to be discreet, click below and use the anonymous option:
More Cornwall on the banks
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The Mayne Report costs almost $100,000 a year to run so if you fancy giving us a hand to help fund our activism and keep us going on the political and AGM circuit, just click on the image below:
More gems from Mark Cornwall
Sign up for campaign and governance Tweets
Click on the image above to join more than 2700 followers on Twitter. Here are some of the more recent Tweets since the last edition:
7.26pm November 14: Green primary to rise as Libs put them last everywhere both houses & ALP deals with gun-toting climate deniers to shaft Greens in 2 regions.
6.34pm November 14: Both the Libs and Labor accepted Sex Party proposals for comprehensive preference deals in both houses. Greens not happy.
12.11pm November 14: Prefences deadline has passed. Here's a prediction of votes and flows: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/14-1142-5596.html
9.24am November 14: Off to lodge preference ticket at VEC and scored mention in Sunday Age story slagging Labor deal with shooters: http://www.maynereport.com/
7.23pm November 13: Libs and ALP still yet to confirm to minor parties which way they are jumping on upper house prefs. Labor deal with shooters and fishers.
2.33pm November 13: Here's audio of debate from Fairfax AGM about Middle Eastern coverage: http://video.maynereport.com/audio/fairfaxAGM10/fairfax2010AGM_2.mp3
10.31am November 12: Have filed for Crikey today on a cracking community forum in Brunswick last night with 10 candidates and plenty of fireworks. Cleary is key.
11.17pm November 11: Fiery community meeting of 150 on planning in Brunswick tonight. Ten candidates and hostile for ALP's Jane Garrett. Inner city is erupting.
7.03pm November 11: Fairfax AGM audio, Vic election, pokies and much more in latest email missive: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/08-1031-9565.html
12.55pm November 11: Fairfax just copped big attack about anti Israel bias at agm. My first hit was on $6bn intangibles and need for writedowns
8.48am November 11: Off to Fairfax Media AGM at Crown this morning then a Melbourne Press Club lunch with Bob Brown being held, appropriately, at The Windsor.
That's all for now.
Do ya best, Stephen Mayne
* The Mayne Report is a multi-media governance website published by shareholder activist, local government councillor, Crikey founder and political candidate Stephen Mayne with regular email editions. This email was authorised by Paula Piccinini of 205 William St, Melbourne 3000. To unsubscribe from the free emails click here.
the prospects of pulling off an unlikely victory as an independent candidate in the state election received a strong boost yesterday with the publication of all the Group Voting Tickets for the 8 upper house regions.
When briefing independent candidates last Sunday, the electoral commissioner Steve Tully predicted 93% of all votes would be cast above the line so these group deals are absolutely vital.
The Northern Metropolitan Group Voting Tickets reveal we've received a first preference allocation from three of the 10 groups, namely Family First, the Greens and an Independent Carers group who also has the benefit of being first on the ballot paper.
We've got one of the best preference flows of upper house Group in Victoria, with the possible exception of Country Alliance in Northern Victoria.
William Bowe, the respected PollBludger blogger on Crikey, has already produced this comprehensive analysis and had this to say about Northern Metropolitan:
With very few exceptions, preferences have been allocated in such a way as to create neat left-right divides, in which each bloc will win either three or two seats and divide the spoils between them. The only flies in this ointment are Northern Metropolitan, where preferences to and from Stephen Mayne are all over the shop, and Northern Victoria, where the Country Alliance seem to have charmed all and sundry, including the Sex Party.
We've shown you ours, no show us yours Madam Sex Party
The explanation for our "all over the shop" support can be found here where we've publically revealed all preference agreements. Two of them were linked to the Victorian Senate contest at the Federal election, hence the favourable flows from unexpected quarters.
Given the slanging match which is unfolding over preference deals, all other candidates and parties really should follow this full disclosure lead and reveal their own deals.
For instance, both major parties have clearly signed up to a deal with The Sex Party. What would Archbishop Pell say to Tony Abbott when he fesses up to this one? Antony Green described it as follows on his election blog last night:
Labor would lose its second seat in South Metropolitan to the Liberal party, a result made more likely by the Sex Party listing the Liberals ahead of Labor, a deal that perhaps explains the Liberal Party's strange decision to give the Sex Party its second preferences in Northern metropolitan region.
The Sex Party is clearly putting all its eggs in the Northern Metropolitan basket to try and get Fiona Patten, the partner of party founder Robbie Swan, over the line. However, to pull this off, she'll need to increase her Senate vote by almost 50% to about 3.5% and then rely on about 1% from me and the Liberals or the Greens having a bad day such that she can get ahead of either of them.
It shouldn't be discounted but remains an outside prospect. Fiona has been profiled in the Herald Sun today and I've lobbed the first comment about floods of Catholic voters potentially dumping the major parties on hearing they are both directing first preferences in Northern Metropolitan to the p#rn industry.
What it will take to win in Northern Metro
With favourable preferences in place, here's what we need to get through to knock off Labor's Nathan Murphy and win the final spot in Northern Metro:
(a) poll more than 1% and finish ahead of the Independent Carers group who will almost certainly poll above 0.5% given they benefit from the donkey vote.
(b) with Carer preferences, get ahead of either the Sex Party or Family First. This is more likely to be Family First because the Sex Party will pick up an estimated 0.2% of the vote from their Country Alliance preference deal and should benefit from all the publicity about their Group Preference arrangement with the major parties.
(c) have our vote plus the Carers, Sex Party and Family First exceed the rival bloc of DLP/Christian Democrats/Country Alliance.
(d) hope the Liberal vote doesn't fall from a surplus of 6.6% in 2006 to a lower figure which could be passed by the combined vote of DLP, Christian Democrats and Country Alliance, once the Sex Party are eliminated.
(e) with 4 left, finish ahead of either the Greens or the Liberals/CDP.
(f) with three left, not have the Green vote surge and the Labor vote collapse such that Labor is eliminated and elect the second Green.
(g) avoid accumulated group voting ticket leakage through below the line voting all the way through this process.
Getting through (b) is easily the hardest task which is why we need volunteers to help distribute the 100,000 how to vote cards we're getting printed this week. That said, a primary vote north of 1.5% might be enough to get over the line, so if you'd like to volunteer, please email Paula@maynereport.com.
Labor jumps into bed with gun-toting climate deniers
Stand by for the Green vote to jump in the inner city as voters feel sorry for the way Liberal and Labor have ganged up against them.
Whilst Labor is claiming they are preferencing the Greens ahead of the Liberals everywhere, this hasn't stopped them going to the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria and Eastern Victoria.
The Age's Adam Morton revealed some of the policy pay-offs on November 11.
Labor did something similar in 2006 when Country Alliance associated independent Rita Bentley got Evan Thornley over the line in Southern Metropolitan in exchange for some policy concessions. It's all pretty grubby stuff and Labor should suffer a modest primary vote hit from those concerned about environmental issues who were contemplating a switch to the Greens.
Here's what our cartoonist Mark Cornwall makes of the situation:
Northern Metro video launches
We'll be rollling out a series of videos this week and here's one we shot on Friday in front of the Tankerville Arms Hotel in Fitzroy. I fondly remember watching my best man's band play at The Tank. These days there are no bands, only poker machines, and that is part of pitch in Northern Metropolitan. Click on the image below to find out more:
Questioning Bob Brown about surging state debt at the Press Club
Like many former Liberal wets, I don't mind parts of the Greens social agenda and hope they do well on November 27. However, the most troubling aspect of their platform is financial management and industrial relations. They are just too left wing, it seems.
Whilst it wasn't hostile, check out this quite pointed question I asked Bob Brown at the Melbourne Press Club on Friday about debt management:
Tim Costello and Nick Xenophon urge everyone to attend pokies public forum on November 23
Check out this video shot by Tim Costello, Nick Xenophon and a range of other participants involved in an upcoming pokies forum in Melbourne for the state election. Gaming Minister Tony Robinson and his shadow Michael O'Brien have been invited and the details are as follows:
Date: Tuesday 23rd November
Time: 9am – 11am
Venue: Cathedral Room
Cardinal Knox Centre
383 Albert St
East Melbourne
Around the grounds on the pokies
Check out this package of past encounters and details on the 2010 board tilt with pokies giant Woolworths.
Check out this interview with Senator Nick Xenophon about why the pokies matter in this state election.
We've been twittering like mad about preferences today, so click below to get on board
Defending Fairfax from virulent attacks and not getting much of a run
In the last update sent on November 11, we mentioned the extraordinary attacks on Fairfax and its broadsheets by Michael Burd and Daniel Small at last week's Fairfax AGM. The allegations were flying so thick and fast about alleged anti-Israel bias, that I felt obliged to get up and defend press freedom. We've now packaged up the audio here. The voice you heard at the end calling for an end to my "speeches", was Michael Burd, who was clearly miffed with the intervention.
That said, stepping up and defending Fairfax hasn't exactly generated any coverage for our Northern Metropolitan tilt in the print edition of The Age.
We expect to be banned by the Herald Sun as a result of criticising Rupert Murdoch at the News Corp AGM, but The Age approach has been a tad frustrating.
I gave The Sunday Age's Melissa Fyfe some grabs about preference negotiations on Saturday afternoon and they made it into the
online version of her story as follows:
Shareholder activist and upper house Northern Metropolitan Region candidate Stephen Mayne yesterday accused Labor of doing a ''sleazy deal'' with a party that ''aims to trash the environment through four-wheel-driving, shooting and the like''.
''Inner-city Labor voters, especially those concerned about the environment, will be very concerned to know Labor is preferencing Country Alliance ahead of the Greens in a number of upper house regions,'' he said.
Mr Reece said the ALP was locked in negotiations with a number of parties and did not wish to comment on the Country Alliance. Russell Bate, chairman of the Country Alliance, also declined to speak about his preference deals with Labor.
When the paper version landed on the lawn yesterday morning, these words had been cut. Oh well.
Labor preference allocators prefer the better half
Labor and the Country Alliance both clearly objected to the comments before preference tickets were lodged and we duly dropped a few spots down their rankings. Country Alliance reckon only the Greens are worse, whilst Labor only put us ahead of the Liberals and Christian Democrats. Anticipating as much, Country Alliance finished stone motherless last on our ticket. The hunting and shooting brigade can send their votes elsewhere.
Labor also went to the trouble of reversing our ticket and preferencing Paula at number 22 and me at 23. Check it out at the bottom of the Northern Metro cards.
This prompted the following email to ALP state secretary Nick Reece earlier this morning:
Hi Nick, my wife is flattered that Labor has preferenced her ahead of me on your Northern Metro ticket.
She's a good Italian migrant, 10 pound ticket, Whitlam era etc so claims your decision is utterly appropriate.
As for me...I'll get over it.
Best wishes, Stephen Mayne
Fiscal responsibility debate and the letter The Age declined to run
I sat next to The Age's Tim Colebatch inside the ABC television control room as Victorian Treasurer John Lenders and his shadow Kim Wells slugged it out for 11 minutes on Stateline last Friday night. It wasn't much of a debate.
Tim didn't cover the discussion on Saturday, but instead produced this comment piece talking up the strength of Victoria's public finances.
Having failed to mention the state's surging debt, I submitted the following letter to the editor for publication:
Tim Colebatch claims ("Political bickering aside, plunging into deficit is no option", The Age, 13/11) Victoria has had "18 years of conservative fiscal management" and there's no way Ted Baillieu or John Brumby would allow spending to exceed revenue.
I was press secretary to Treasurer Alan Stockdale in the first two years of the Kennett Government and am now an independent candidate for the upper house genuinely concerned about soaring state debt.
Gross debt fell from $33 billion to $12 billion during the 7 years of Coalition Government. Whilst Steve Bracks maintained reasonable financial discipline in the early Labor years, the budget has careered out of control since John Brumby stepped up from Treasurer to Premier.
Indeed, the Treasury Corporation of Victoria website confirms that gross state debt has almost doubled to $24 billion over the past two years and the last state budget predicted state debt would hit $39 billion by 2014.
It's puzzling that journalists and politicians of all persuasions continue to claim Victoria is in surplus by ignoring capital spending on things like hospitals and roads.
By way of contrast, the Federal Government admits that its 2009-10 budget outcome was a $54.8 billion cash deficit because this includes all capital spending such as the school halls program and new defence equipment.
It's time for some truth in financial reporting as the big three parties go on a reckless spending spree.
Tim was sent the letter as a courtesy and he fired back an angry reply referring to this long piece written shortly before the 2002 Victorian election which we claimed at the time demolished the Brumby-Bracks record on financial management.
Unfortunately, the letter didn't make the cut in today's paper so the debate won't go any further, it seems. However, that 2002 piece is well worth another read.
Even RBA governor Glenn Stevens feels the need to downplay public debt
It was very strange to hear Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens make the following statement during the federal election campaign: "There is virtually no net public debt in the country at all in contrast to much of the developed world."
Whilst Rupert Murdoch's flagship newspaper Down Under, The Australian, loves to beat up on Labor governments irrespective of the facts sometimes, this recent splash pointing out that state government debt is projected to top $240 billion was a worthwhile piece of journalism.
I bumped into former Bendigo Bank managing director Rob Hunt in Bendigo two weeks ago and congratulated him on landing the tough job of chairing Treasury Corporation of Victoria, our state debt management authority.
He was told that debt disclosure by TCV is very poor. The Federal Government's own debt management website puts the gross debt figure at $152 billion and the bond issues continue to come as follows since our last edition:
Wednesday, November 10, 2010: $500m tender of 12 year bonds expiring in July 2022 were sold for an average yield of 5.43% and was over-subscribed 4.5 times.
Spend $50 for a season's ticket that helps keeps the directors and pollies honest
The coming weeks will be a very interesting time with the Australian AGM season and the Victorian election but things like contesting the state election and flying to New York to tackle Rupert Murdoch don't come cheap.
Therefore, why not sign up for a $50 AGM season ticket and you will get exclusive email updates on the various battles as 1600 Australian public companies hold their AGMs and the Victorian election unfolds.
Alternatively, email Paula@maynereport.com and offer to volunteer to hand out on election day and you'll receive a free subscription.
If you'd like to support robust political and shareholder activism and get an inside look at what should be a fascinating period, click here to purchase your season ticket that will take you through until the end of 2010.
What should Phil Cleary do in Brunswick?
Crikey ran the following story last Friday: Death in Brunswick for Jane Garrett and the ALP
With the Liberals now directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens everywhere, Green success in the inner city is being discounted.
The Age has splashed today claiming the Liberal move has the effect of "virtually destroying the minor party's chances of winning seats in the lower house".
Others are not so sure because Liberal voters may protest the move and it will almost certainly further increase the Green primary vote.
Antony Green has come up with the bizarre prediction that the Liberals may not hand out at all in three strongest inner city seats for the Greens. With $3 of public funding coming from every voter who supports the Liberals in both houses, this is hard to believe.
William Bowe has run some fascinating figures on his Crikey blog estimating the difference the Liberal decision makes is 5-8% on the 2PP vote. That's very meaningful and it looks like even Melbourne could stay with the ALP, but only just.
For Phil Cleary, he needs to work out which way to jump with his preferences in Brunswick.
Frankly, the major parties are looking pretty cynical at the moment and if Cleary wants to maximise his primary vote, he probably should stick with his mooted preference arrangement with the Greens.
The voters like convictions politicians in the inner city. If Cleary has been railing against Spring Street and Labor's planning system, his convictions won't look so flash if he suddenly does a preference deal with a tired government carrying plenty of baggage.
Incidentally, Cleary's flyer going around Brunswick is being well received. The seasoned campaigner is making quite a splash and may do a little better than some of his critics suggest.
The Cornwall collection
Former Fairfax and Crikey cartoonist Mark Cornwall has been contributing to The Mayne Report since March 2009. Here is a collection of his best cartoons and check out his latest animation:
==============================================
==============================================
=============================================
Support our long term tailor Kumar Advani
The Mayne Report Rich List
BRW magazine does a great job with its various Australian Rich Lists but we've broadened their efforts to track any Australian who has ever been worth more than $10 million. We began the process of building the list in early 2008 where we had an initial 327 names. Now, after much research, we've got more than 1500 names with those who've fallen back below $10 million italicised.
It was also heartening to be told at the Fairfax AGM last week that BRW still makes money. Doubt it makes much, but that Rich List franchise remains popular.
Even during the state election, the 1500 names on our Rich List is often the most popular page on our site. We love your tips coming through on Richies and if you want to be discreet, click below and use the anonymous option:
More Cornwall on the banks
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Click on the image above to join more than 2700 followers on Twitter. Here are some of the more recent Tweets since the last edition:
7.26pm November 14: Green primary to rise as Libs put them last everywhere both houses & ALP deals with gun-toting climate deniers to shaft Greens in 2 regions.
6.34pm November 14: Both the Libs and Labor accepted Sex Party proposals for comprehensive preference deals in both houses. Greens not happy.
12.11pm November 14: Prefences deadline has passed. Here's a prediction of votes and flows: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/14-1142-5596.html
9.24am November 14: Off to lodge preference ticket at VEC and scored mention in Sunday Age story slagging Labor deal with shooters: http://www.maynereport.com/
7.23pm November 13: Libs and ALP still yet to confirm to minor parties which way they are jumping on upper house prefs. Labor deal with shooters and fishers.
2.33pm November 13: Here's audio of debate from Fairfax AGM about Middle Eastern coverage: http://video.maynereport.com/audio/fairfaxAGM10/fairfax2010AGM_2.mp3
10.31am November 12: Have filed for Crikey today on a cracking community forum in Brunswick last night with 10 candidates and plenty of fireworks. Cleary is key.
11.17pm November 11: Fiery community meeting of 150 on planning in Brunswick tonight. Ten candidates and hostile for ALP's Jane Garrett. Inner city is erupting.
7.03pm November 11: Fairfax AGM audio, Vic election, pokies and much more in latest email missive: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/08-1031-9565.html
12.55pm November 11: Fairfax just copped big attack about anti Israel bias at agm. My first hit was on $6bn intangibles and need for writedowns
8.48am November 11: Off to Fairfax Media AGM at Crown this morning then a Melbourne Press Club lunch with Bob Brown being held, appropriately, at The Windsor.
That's all for now.
Do ya best, Stephen Mayne
* The Mayne Report is a multi-media governance website published by shareholder activist, local government councillor, Crikey founder and political candidate Stephen Mayne with regular email editions. This email was authorised by Paula Piccinini of 205 William St, Melbourne 3000. To unsubscribe from the free emails click here.