A final pitch to the good people of Northern Metropolitan
November 26, 2010
Greetings one and all,
In this final missive before election day we've got plenty of lively material so click here for the URL if you'd like to send it on. Alternatively, click here to unsubscribe.
Firstly, it's been a rather busy period engaging with the media on a range of issues and here's some of the diverse action of late on radio:
774 ABC Melbourne Independents forum - joined Jon Faine, Phil Cleary and Fiona Patten for a lively debate this morning.
3AW Melbourne - with Neil Mitchell on 3AW yesterday about the pokies during his traditional "whackos and fringe dwellers" session.
ABC radio's PM program - discussing the anti-siphoning laws and sports rights before the big announcement yesterday.
2UE Sydney - discussing Paul Hogan's tax reprieve after an appearance on Seven News (see press room below) last Tuesday.
Pokies finally get an airing during scrap with Neil Mitchell
First up in terms of the Victorian election campaign, do have a listen to this pokies tax slug-fest with Neil Mitchell on 3AW yesterday. Carrying on about the tax rises required if the pokies are phased out just completely misses the point - the pokies are the most regressive and socially damaging way to raise revenue.
It has been hard yards getting the pokies onto the agenda this campaign. Gabi Byrne did a great job pulling together the big pokies forum on Tuesday, but as we explained in this Crikey story on Wednesday, the mainstream media didn't front.
Standing next to Gaming Minister Tony Robinson and his shadow Michael O'Brien and labelling their respective policies "pathetic" was a highlight of the campaign and it was good that Woolies pokies boss Ross Blair-Holt turned up to hear it all as well.
We brought our own cameras to the forum and have created a video playlist of all the highlights, and there were plenty. Just click on the image of Tim Costello below to see the speeches by all the major players:
In terms of standing and delivering, the pokies effort was almost as much fun as this speech in front of 1000 women at the Melbourne Town Hall a few months back or this 12 minute exchange with Rupert Murdoch in New York in October.
The Age says we're in with a chance
Tim Colebatch from The Age understands the upper house preference voting system better than most and has pulled together this summary of all the upper house possibilities in today's paper. We're heartened to be rated a chance as follows:
In the most bizarre preference deal of the campaign, the Liberals, Labor and the Country Alliance are all directing preferences to Sex Party leader Fiona Patten. Journalist Stephen Mayne, an independent, has a chance, as does the DLP's John Kavanagh, brother of Peter. If none of them scores enough votes to matter, it will come down to Liberals versus Labor, with Greens de facto leader Greg Barber set to hold his seat - and the balance of power.
Why the decision of a Green senator's relative means the Sex Party won't win
Ironically, The Sex Party got all those first preferences coming towards them but nothing of use from the Group it gave its first preference to in Northern Metro, namely the Independent Parents and Carers, who also have the benefit of the donkey vote as Group A on the ballot paper.
We're swapping first preferences with the Parents and Carers Group who are then going to the Greens ahead of the Sex Party. Could this high preference for the Greens from the Parent and Carers be because their lead candidate, Joanne Stuart, is related to South Australian Greens Senator, Sarah Hanson-Young?
The Parents and Carers actually have the best preference flow of anyone so it would be strategic for Green supporters in Northern Metropolitan to vote for Group A as this could deliver a second defacto Green, on top of Greg Barber who is a dead cert to get up.
Joanne Stuart is an impressive candidate who has experience working in unions and is the parent of child with a disability. Like many carers, she's passionate about the need for a National Disability Insurance Scheme as independent Andrew Wilkie pressured Julia Gillard on during Question Time yesterday.
Clearly, despite whatever discussions led The Sex Party to preference Joanne Stuart first, she wasn't prepared to reciprocate to a group which, at the end of the day, is an extension of the p*rn lobby, albeit with quite detailed libertarian philosophies laid out on their website.
The Sex Party structured all of their preference deals to get Fiona Patten elected. They were extremely promiscuous with both major parties which were, to their profound discredit, prepared to play ball to win Sex Party preferences in a series of key lower house marginal seats.
For instance, the crusading Frenchman Serge Thomann has run a cracking campaign as an independent in Albert Part, but if the Port Phillip councillor falls short it will probably be because he was sold out by the Sex Party which delivered preferences to Labor ahead of him.
Socialist independent and feisty Yarra councillor Stephen Jolly was equally indignant when the Sex Party went to Labor ahead of him in Richmond.
Usually, small parties try to stick together and help each other, but the Sex Party ditched many minor comrades as part of their pact with the two majors, all of which will probably come to nought in terms of the ultimate strategy of getting Fiona Patten elected because of Sarah Hanson-Young's cousin.
Wackos, fringe dwellers and the struggle to get heard
This story was submitted to Crikey yesterday but didn't make the cut, which is sort of ironic given its content. Not that we're complaining given we filed late with little warning it was coming and Crikey had plenty of other good state election material. We'll be serving up one final Crikey election story for today's edition:
It is a tradition for minor parties and independents to complain about lack of media attention during an election battle and this Victorian campaign has been no different.
Despite all this attention on independents coming out of Canberra, the mainstream media have slavishly followed the major parties.
The Greens are obviously receiving plenty of increased attention, but they have also found themselves subjected to quite extraordinary hostility from the Murdoch press and right wing shock jocks.
Neil Mitchell has been presenting the Morning program for more than 20 years on 3AW and studiously ignores the minor players.
However, it has become something of a tradition on the Thursday before polling day for Mitchell to play the theme song from Monty Python's Flying Circus and then encourage all the “whackos and fringe dwellers” to call in.
Such an approach obviously demeans hundreds of genuine people attempting to engage in a democratic process. Mitchell is basically saying that anyone other than a Liberal or Labor candidate is a nutter.
Mitchell opened up with the Greens candidate for Richmond, Kathleen Maltzahn, who got absolutely mauled over a proposal to lower speed limits around schools and provide greater encouragement to cyclists.
Secondly, we had Mitchell interviewing a 20-year-old kid running in the upper house region of Eastern Metro who had some odd-ball approach to zombies and paint balling. Case proven – one odd ball equals 200 nutters across the DLP, Family First, Sex Party, Country Alliance and independent spectrum, according to Mitchell.
I was third cab off the rank shortly before 10am and Mitchell went ballistic because taxes would have to be increased to pay for a reduction in pokies revenue. Too right, Neil. Any tax is better than a pokies tax, which is the most regressive and damaging method for government to fund its budget.
Have a listen to the interview which bristles with hostility and finishes with a spray about accurate journalism and some unexplained slight many years ago.
When some of Mitchell's callers complained about his demeaning approach, he arrogantly declared all minor players “deserve it”.
Several of the candidates got blasted about costings, as if to suggest they could get Treasury involved or would ever have the power to actually implement their policies.
As Mitchell wrapped his program with a highlights package just before midday, he ran an extended extract from our pokies tax stoush and then cut to some caller who was commenting on the “zombie” candidate saying “please tell me that independent nut-job isn't running for parliament”. Thanks, mate!
It doesn't get much easier in newspaper land, either.
Herald Sun boss Peter Blunden has long imposed a ban on any mention of yours truly courtesy of critical coverage ever since the original 18,000 word treatise about Jeff Kennett on jeffed.com. Blunden looks like achieving the status of being the only newspaper boss who managed zero mentions through both state and federal tilts.
If Blunden maintains the ban in Saturday's paper and achieves another milestone in abusing media power for petty personal reasons, the response will be a repeat of the popularly backed shareholder resolution for Rupert Murdoch at next year's News Corp AGM in New York proposing an end to his gerrymander which denies 70% of shares the vote. Your choice, Peter. The boss won't thank you.
The AFR has also long imposed a ban thanks to 1999 criticisms of CEO Michael Gill so after numerous unsuccessful story pitches in recent months, I set upon the tactic of giving them an embarrassing scoopette.
The AFR's Victorian political reporter Matthew Dunckley, a former Bracks government staffer, was dutifully informed that I'd applied for the chief executive role at the Australian Shareholders' Association earlier this month but was rejected. It's disappointing and true.
Bingo, three paragraphs in Rear Window about the “serial job application lodger” having “yet another unsuccessful tilt”. Oh well, you know what they say about all publicity.
At least 774 ABC Melbourne's Jon Faine has agreed to a half hour segment for the independents this morning after 9.30am.
As for The Age, there was little coverage of the minor players with the exception of Phil Cleary's strong tilt at Brunswick, but at least Tim Colebatch analysed the scenarios in the upper house today.
If a couple of minor players do land seats in the upper house, the public certainly won't be able to say they were informed of the prospect by comprehensive media coverage, just as no-one covered Steve Fielding's successful Senate tilt and everyone ignored the DLP which also scored a Senate seat in the last Federal election.
Twenty more volunteers needed to help make history
With almost 80 booth workers committed for Saturday we're getting close to the point where a winning primary vote of 1.5%-plus is in sight, although it would be great to persuade another 20 or so volunteers today to sign up and help us fully distribute the 100,000 how to vote cards.
Even if it's only for a two hour slot we've got some lovely booths available and you could be a part of history if an independent cracks the upper house for the first time. Would anyone like to take over from Joan at Hurstbridge Primary School at 11am or close out the day with a 4-6pm stint?
How about Carlton Primary School where the locals are always interesting. We could do with more coverage in Thornbury and then there's the likes of Moreland Primary or Fairfield Primary.
Paula and I toured 30 booths on Federal election day and we had the most fun up in Broadmeadows given the amazing multi-cultural melting pot that really appreciates candidates and volunteers who take them seriously. Voters in safe Labor seats like John Brumby's Broadmeadows tend to be taken or granted.
We've got the big Broadie booths covered in the morning but we'd love to hear from anyone up for a slot in the afternoon.
Why not give Paula a call on 0411 483 176 or email the recovering barrister, running mate and RACV director on Paula@maynereport.com if you're available.
I've got a real sense that history could be made tomorrow with the first successful independent tilt at the upper house and you could be part of it.
If we've got you toying with the idea, click on the image below to watch a video which explains the voting system, candidates and policies related to the eminently winnable run in the Northern Metropolitan region:
The material you'd be handing out
With 50 boxes each containing 2000 how-to-vote cards, we've been charging around Melbourne dropping them off and have the final 20 boxes to distribute today and Saturday morning.
We've got 100,000 double-sided colour A4 how-to-vote cards and spent $3800 having them printed. They also make for an effective flyer so if you've got them in the Northern Metropolitan region, feel free to drop a few in letter boxes around the neighbourhood today or turn up to one of the early voting centres listed below.
There are two versions of the HTV and we've printed 70,000 on green for the inner city and 30,000 on yellow for the Northern suburbs. The messages are only slightly different.
All of them have the same reverse with a map of the electorate, some text explaining the likely prospects and voting system and then some messages in Greek, Italian, Arabic and Chinese.
There's a small picture of Senator Nick Xenophon with the Greek message and a picture of the happy married couple turned running mates "Stefano e Paola" with the Italian message. Click here for the full PDF of that.
We've also had 60 A3 colour posters laminated and these are being distributed to some volunteers starting at 8am on booths with plenty of mesh fencing - more likely schools than churches.
Taking on Family First in the growth areas
We've had no problems filling the major booths in seats like Richmond and Ivanhoe with volunteers coming from Manningham and the leafier suburbs south of the river, but there are still gaps in the likes of Yan Yean and Mill Park which are now two of the biggest electorates in the state thanks to all the new estates.
For instance, how's this for the eight largest booths in Mill Park
Mill Park Secondary College: 4116
Plenty Parklands Primary School: 3479
Mill Park Heights Primary School: 3467
Findon Primary School, Mill Park: 3458
Lalor East Primary School: 3367
Lalor North Secondary College: 2786
Peter Lalor Secondary College: 2785
Mill Park Primary School: 2723
South Morang Primary School: 2637
That's 9 booths with 28,818 voters
And compare that with only 4 booths above 2000 voters in low-growth Preston:
Preston West Primary School: 3174
Reservoir Views Primary School: 2622
Preston Primary School: 2488
St Gabriels School, Reservoir: 2097
It really is well over time for a redistribution when you have seats with 20,000 more voters than others.
Family First will be smothering the booths in Mill Park and Yan Yean where they do well with young families in new estates, whereas our focus is on the inner city given our Senate vote was strongest where the Green vote was high.
That said, as we explained in this missive on November 15, our main challenge on Saturday is to get ahead of Family First after receving preferences from the Independent Parents and Carers group, so it makes sense to directly compete with Family First in their strongest booths - hence the need for a few more volunteers.
Expecting another big vote below the line
Voters always take an interest in the above-the-line preference tickets and all those for Northern Metro are available on the VEC website. Our arrangements are explained here.
In the last two upper house elections I've contested, no other candidate has received a higher proportion of votes below the line, which suggests support from informed voters who really care where their preferences finish. It is much easier to vote below the line in Victoria because numbering the minimum of 5 boxes 1 to 5 constitutes a valid vote, which is very different from the Senate where every box has to be filled in.
In the 2010 Senate contest, Paula and I got 4738 votes and despite the fact that voters had to fill in all 62 boxes, the below the line vote was 1896 of the total or some 40% which was the highest proportion in a country which averaged 97% above the line.
At the 2006 state election in Southern Metropolitan, 35.6% of our vote was below the line, when the average was less than 10% across Victoria.
These 4797 first preference votes only delivered 3088 votes directly to the Democrats who were getting the second preference. Those who went below the line clearly preferred the Greens with 841 votes, followed by Labor's Evan Thornley with 360 votes and the Liberals with 317 votes.
Attracting the educated inner city Green voters
The challenge on Saturday is clearly to persuade inner city Green voters to vote below the line in numbers and go our way first. They know lead Greens candidate Greg Barber is home and hosed and that the second Green, Alex Bathal, is a quality candidate who will struggle to win.
For those who would like to broaden the upper house gene pool by tipping out Labor's little known "son of a union boss" Nathan Murphy, the best option is a vote for us or the Independent Parents and Cares group who both ultimately end up preferencing the Greens ahead of Liberal and Labor.
For those concerned about the Greens, a vote for us is arguably the best way to stop the second Green getting elected. But you shouldn't be worried about Alex Bathal who will serve with distinction in parliament one day. Just probably not this time.
In terms of other minor party prospects on Saturday, The Australian Sex Party is an outside chance as discussed above. The DLP is a slightly better chance because it picks up all the Right wing christian preferences, but again, even if you add all of these up along with the Liberal surplus, it is hard to see how their candidate John Mulholland, who is an effective Moreland councillor, can get to a quota of 16.7%.
In terms of where our preferences finish, the most likely scenario is with the Greens but this probably won't be enough to get them ahead of Labor who will benefit from all of the Right wing preferences ahead of the Greens. This is what makes a Labor win in the race for the fifth spot the most likely scenario. And this is what really ought to be avoided given the Labor candidate in question, as was explained in this missive to 3000 lawyers revealing that Julian Burnside QC was endorsing our tilt.
Preferences coming our way
In terms of preferences flowing to us, we've got a first preference from Family First and the Greens, both of which were negotiated during the Senate campaign and don't have to be reciprocated on Saturday.
There's an additional first preference swap with the Independent Parents and Carers Group and then both the DLP and The Australian Sex Party are coming to us ahead of the majors and most minors.
All up, it represents an excellent flow from the left and the right. Any primary vote above 1.5% and we're in with a show.
Early voting centres getting busy
Whilst the weather was pretty ordinary yesterday, it would be great if anyone fancies dropping into an early voting centre at lunch time today or for the late rush after 4pm.
Early voting is on the rise and it progressively gets busier leading up to polling day.
Check out the full list of early voting centres across Victoria and the 11 in Northern Metro are as follows starting in the south and moving north:
Melbourne (the busiest voting centres but they are not all from Northern Metropolitan)
Ground floor, Casselden Place, 2 Lonsdale St
Victoria University: level 12, 300 Flinders St
Ground floor, 565 Bourke St
Richmond: 187 Bridge Rd
Brunswick: Unit 2/21-27 Brunswick Rd, East Brunswick
Northcote: 100A Bell St, Preston
Ivanhoe: 53 Burgundy St, Heidelberg
Bundoora: 9/13 Flintoff St, Greensborough
Preston: 203 Edwardes St, Reservoir
Mill Park: Unit 3/19 Enterprise Drive, Bundoora
Thomastown: 210 Mahoneys Rd, Thomastown
Broadmeadows: The Gateway Business Park Office, C1, 1-13 The Gateway, Broadmeadows
Yan Yean: 802 Heidelberg-Kinglake Rd, Hurstbridge
Watching the count on Saturday night
After booths close on Saturday, we'll be heading back to our house and all volunteers are welcome to come around from 6.15pm onwards for a barbecue and to watch the vote. It could turn into quite a party if things go well.
How the ads appeared across the Murdoch local papers in Northern Metro
Whilst the ongoing ban in the Herald Sun has prevailed through both the Federal and State election, there has been some limited coverage in the network of News Ltd suburban giveaways throughout Northern Metropolitan, such as this website only piece about preference deals and this website only story about Whittlesea Council.
We also spent $2300 on ads in eight Leader newspapers and the results were as follows:
Moreland Leader: bottom of page 14.
Heidelberg Leader: middle of page 9.
Hume Leader: bottom of page 5.
Melbourne Leader (Melbourne electorate): bottom of page 9.
Melbourne Leader (Richmond electorate): bottom left of page 9.
Northcote Leader: middle of page 9.
Whittlesea Leader: middle of page 32.
Preston Leader: top of page 12.
Diamond Valley Leader: top right of page 9, and they also ran the story below next to the ad.
Do you know these 400,000 people?
The other way you can help is to identify voters who live within the 11 lower house seats pictured below that comprise the Northern Metropolitan region. Drop them an email and tell them an independent backed by the likes of Julian Burnside QC and Senator Nick Xenophon is in with a chance off knocking off "faceless man" Nathan Murphy, the little-known number three on the Labor ticket who got the gig partly because his dad is a powerful union boss.
Surely the state upper house could do with a lively independent rather than yet another union boss when 80% of ALP Senate positions will be filled by former union officials after June 30 next year. Here's the map that matters for those Northern Metro voters:
With a campaign budget limited to about $10,000 we can't afford to write to individual voters, but we need at least 6000 of the 400,000 voters to vote for "Group C" on the big yellow ballot paper to be in with a chance. It was certainly encouraging to receive emails like one from a chap in Diamond Creek who said he'd persuaded 10 friends to support our tilt in the upper house.
Pressuring councillors into disclosing their expenses - Yarra latest to be questioned
As we pointed out in this video filmed outside the Fitzroy Town Hall, disclosure of councillor expenses is an easy reform that should be embraced by everyone.
During 10 visits to Northern Metro council meetings over the past few months, the most resistance we've encountered so far was from veteran Labor Right Darebin councillor Steven Tsitas, whose wife works for local Northcote MP and Labor Party powerbroker Fiona Richardson.
We gave Tsitas a touch up in this Crikey tips section on October 5 for railing against such disclosure and then really put him on the spot at the council meeting two weeks ago.
It shouldn't be too long before Darebin follows the Hume or Moreland model of quarterly or annual online disclosures of councillor expense claims.
If there is to be a maiden speech delivered in the upper house, it will name all Victorian councils presently refusing to regularly disclose their individual councillor expense claims. Sadly, that still includes Manningham.
We also attended our first City of Yarra council meeting on Tuesday night and was quite impressed with the quality of the debate. If only all councillors could talk like most of the Yarra crew. The likes of Independent Jacqui Fristacky and Labor's Josh Funder are proven performers and acting mayor Geoff Barbour also seemed right across his brief.
However, when quizzed about the complete failure to disclose councillor expenses the excuses were pretty lame, with one councillor simply saying the expense claims were small. Well, how do we know that if there is no disclosure?
A final pre-election update from the Manningham circus
Manningham councillors and first time state Labor candidates Ivan Reid and Charles Pick have been distracted from their low-profile campaigns in the state seats of Bulleen and Doncaster respectively and are getting pretty energised about some of our recent missives, especially after the November 18 edition.
C'mon guys, don't get distracted from the main game. That 33.58% Labor primary vote in Bulleen and the 32.67% in Doncaster back in 2006 needs to be defended. Any retreat won't look good.
Matters are certainly coming to a head over the long-running saga of the Planning Minister's intervention and fast track for the $15 million redevelopment of the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home in our Green Wedge zone where nursing homes are expressly prohibited.
The Councillor Conduct Panel findings into deputy mayor and On Luck boss Fred Chuah is expected to be released in time for next Tuesday's council meeting. In other words, it's imminent.
After the full board of the nursing home developer made those heavy defamation threats we covered in our last edition, I submitted the following notice of motion for public debate next Tuesday:
Council notes with concern recent written threats by Chinese Community Social Services Centre Incorporated (CCSSCI) to launch defamation proceedings against Manningham councillors Stephen Mayne and David Ellis in relation to public debate about the proposed expansion of the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home in Donvale.
Council notes that the threatened action as detailed relates, in part, to the reiteration of the advice and published opinion of council officers which was unanimously endorsed by Council in February 2010.
Council further calls on all proponents of major developments in Manningham to respect the rights of councillors to speak freely, where this is consistent with the Local Government Act, to constituents and the community about planning proposals and planning process.
Council calls on CCSSCI and all such service partners of Council to respect the partnership and also to respect the interests of Manningham ratepayers before promoting unnecessary and costly legal disputation with Council or individual councillors.
Cr McMillan comes out swinging
This has triggered all sorts of fire-works from Fred's backers on council. For instance, click here to read this straight-talking letter in the Manningham Leader from Cr Graeme McMillan calling for my resignation.
Cr McMillan's attempts to talk up the mayor's achievements shows their relationship has come a long way since a late night car park confrontation (yes, another one!) in February last year which finished with the mayor writing a very stern letter to Cr McMillan.
We were also most amused to read this story in The Sunday Age last week trumpeting Park Orchards as having the lowest crime rate in Melbourne.
Cr McMillan hails from Park Orchards and his Park Orchards running mate in the last council election, Paul Slattery, has a large number of minor convictions for offences such as breaching intervention orders.
Indeed, after years of harrassing the council, Mr Slattery was banned in 2009 and has publically railed against the move ever since. We've had to call the police about 10 times over the past 18 months because he keeps turning up to meetings and abusing all and sundry in quite outrageous terms.
Somehow, Victoria's electoral laws have allowed Paul Slattery to contest the state seat of Warrandyte as an independent candidate tomorrow. Mr Slattery is one fringe-dwelling candidate who 3AW's Neil Mitchell should have torn strips off yesterday.
It is passing strange how Cr McMillan is now tearing strips off me and calling for a resignation, when he is yet to publically criticise the continuing outrageous behaviour of Paul Slattery.
Cr McMillan would be best served if he dumped all the negative baggage his little group holds towards a well-run council and instead accepts that Manningham's 700-plus staff do a great job. We certainly don't have 500 staff too many, as has been heard before from Cr McMillan.
Cr McMillan is a self-styled governance guru with an audit background who runs the grandly named CIPTA International which is trumpeting its latest upcoming event online as something in 2005.
However, it has been very disappointing not to get any support whatsover from Cr McMillan on the governance concerns around the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home planning process.
The musings of Labor candidate Ivan Reid
At one point we had our deputy mayor potentially voting on a proposal to recommend the contracting out of management of council's own nursing home when as CCSSCI's chairman, when asked, he wasn't able to rule out bidding. I sent a very strongly worded email around about what in my opinion was a very obvious conflict of interest as we headed towards a big decision a few weeks back and the following came back from Labor councillor Ivan Reid:
Colleagues, I was just reading a Marvel Comic and felt a creative urge to write some fanciful prose. Indulge me, dear friends, as I share my simple story ...
"It was a slow news day and journalists across Motham City were yawning and scratching their ar. ... Then suddenly, with a wave of his puerile pen, the Avenging JJE struck again! Cast out of home at an early age, the JJE is a pathetic, hollow-eyed wannabe, seeking to feel important by pontificating upon things he has no right nor competence to judge. Distrusted by all and known as a cowardly backstabber of politicians, he prowls the halls of Motham City Hall, sucking up to the only ones who don't throw his cr*p into the cr*pper ... Eternally seeking to be a kingmaker, he is instead the perennial bridesmaid. Together with his trusty sidekick, the Looney Leprechaun, they seek stories where there are none and pronounce judgement upon their peers without fully understanding why. Sidelined and in the minority, they rail against democracy whilst supping with the looney Latham's of the world. Oblivious to their failings, as all madmen are, they are powerless against the Stick of Justice which will soon strike them down and their gnashing and wailing will fill the halls of hell (for their homes, they are long gone)." Stay tuned for the next thrilling instalment ....!
Disclaimer: this prose is purely fictional and no similarities to superheroes, villains or persons living or deceased is intended, nor should they be inferred. Anyone so doing will be laughed at scornfully and urged to seek psychiatric help, urgently.
PS. A prize of a copy of my Marvel Comic (2nd hand) to the first to guess what JJE stands for :-)
Try and raise a serious conflict of interest question and that comes back!. As a voter in the state seat of Bulleen, I can only stress that Labor candidate Ivan Reid will be last on my ballot.
For the record, Cr Chuah was an apology at the October council meeting so he did not participate in the debate or vote on the decision to retain our nursing home, something Cr McMillan was extremely unhappy about.
Finally on matters Manningham, check out this story in The Manningham Leader on Wednesday where Green councillor David Ellis dares Labor mayor Charles Pick to pursue civil assault charges for this so-called car park "karate chop".
One can only hope that this circus will end soon after the state election and the council AGM on December 7 when we get a new mayor. One possible circuit breaker would be an escape into state parliament where the focus on promoting good governance would hopefully have less shambolic scenarios to deal with.
Working constructively with council officers
At my first meeting with Manningham CEO Lydia Wilson in December 2008 after the council elections, she said: "Stephen, there is an enormous amount of fear in the building about you."
This was quite a shock, so over the the past two years I've worked very constructively with officers. Indeed, much of the effort at Manningham has gone into defending council officers from often uncalled for attacks and criticisms by fellow councillors. Manningham is a well run council with a strong management team and all us councillors need to ensure this remains the case.
The Manningham CEO has been quite rightly calling for less public commentary in recent times, but in the context of a state election campaign with three councillors contesting, my view is that free flowing political exchanges are to be expected. It should settle down after polling day, although these shock legal threats have the potential to cause more explosions.
Lydia certainly won't be happy when she reads this but there's an election on, I'm running on a platform of keeping Labor dominated councils honest and, sadly, there's an awful lot of material to work with at Manningham.
A summary of the philosophical offer in Northern Metro
As you might be able to tell reading this edition, the basic offer to the people of Northern Metropolitan is an independent MP who will:
* demand maximum transparency and accountability of state politicians;
* Stand up to bullies and those abusing power;
* Fight to dramatically reduce the $2.6 billion a year Victorians lose on the pokies;
* Push hard to improve the operations, quality and transparency of Victorian councils;
* Be fiercely independent of vested interests, be they developers, unions, corporates or media moguls;
* communicate widely Nick Xenophon-style on a range of issues across the media;
* continue selective shareholder activism with a focus on Melbourne-based companies;
* Argue strongly for Victoria's surging $25 billion state debt to be wound back; and
* Embrace multi-culturalism, refugees and action on climate change
Even RBA governor Glenn Stevens feels the need to downplay public debt
It was very strange to hear Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens make the following statement during the federal election campaign: "There is virtually no net public debt in the country at all in contrast to much of the developed world."
Whilst Rupert Murdoch's flagship newspaper Down Under, The Australian, loves to beat up on Labor governments irrespective of the facts sometimes, this recent splash pointing out that state government debt is projected to top $240 billion was a worthwhile piece of journalism.
I bumped into former Bendigo Bank managing director Rob Hunt in Bendigo three weeks ago and congratulated him on landing the tough job of chairing Treasury Corporation of Victoria, our state debt management authority.
He was told that debt disclosure by TCV is very poor. The Federal Government's own debt management website puts the gross debt figure at $152 billion and the bond issues have flowed as follows since our last update:
Wednesday, November 24, 2010: $800m tender of 8 year bonds expiring in January 2018 were sold for an average yield of 5.40% and was over-subscribed 3.7 times.
Friday, November 19, 2010: $700m tender of 4 year bonds expiring in October 2014 were sold for an average yield of 5.28% and was over-subscribed 3.7 times.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010: $500m tender of 10 year bonds expiring in April 2020 were sold for an average yield of 5.40% and was over-subscribed 5.2 times.
Friday, November 12, 2010: $700m tender of 6 year bonds expiring in July 2016 were sold for an average yield of 5.26% and was over-subscribed 4 times.
Tracking former political staffers
The Mayne Report has built and maintained dozens of fascinating lists over the past three years and a particular favourite theme is tracking where former federal political staffers finish. The three main lists are as follows:
Where Howard staffers finished up
Hawke-Keating staffers
Former Rudd staffers.
We always appreciate updates from tippers and have had a couple come in:
David Bushby: worked as an adviser to Jocelyn Newman. When she retired from Cabinet, he went to work as Chief of Staff to Sue Napier (then Tasmanian Leader of the Opposition). After that he took over Guy Barnett's PR firm when Barnett went to the Senate. He ran that until going to the Senate himself in 2007.
Lynne Gallagher: After a career in the Treasury, and as an adviser to Paul Keating, went on to work for Brian Howe as Chief of Staff (1991-1995), before taking on senior roles providing strategic economic advice to corporate Australia. Was working as Craig Emerson's senior economic adviser (2009-10) and is now with Simon Crean.
Recent email editions and updates
For first time readers, here are links to our recent editions since the state election tilt was first revealed:
Developer defamation threat, pokies, councillor expenses, Future Fund, Telstra, AWB and a great offer to campaign volunteers
Monday, November 22, 2010
Future Fund goes to war with Telstra, Woolies AGM wash-up, council pokies taxes and much more
Friday, November 19, 2010
Woolies anti-pokies campaign speech, Manningham mayor boxes on, campaigning for women, Bob Brown, pokies forum, HTVs, Rich List and then some
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Preferences revealed, sleazy deals, Cleary, questioning Bob Brown, The Age, soaring debt, videos, Cornwall and then some
Monday, November 15, 2010
Campaign lift off, Fairfax AGM, councillor expenses, pokies, SP Ausnet, Rich List, women directors, Spark scale back and much more
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Xenophon backs anti-pokies tilt, Packer, Ten, BHP, women directors, Rich List, state debt and much more
Friday, November 5, 2010
From the press room
3AW Melbourne - with Neil Mitchell on 3AW about the pokies during his traditional "whackos and fringe dwellers" session.
ABC PM - discussing the anti-siphoning laws and sports rights.
2UE Sydney - discussing Paul Hogan's tax reprieve after an appearance on Seven News (see press room below) last Tuesday.
Victorian gaming minister slams NSW pollies and industry
Crikey, November 24, 2010
Seven News Paul Hogan story on Sky News
Tuesday, November 24, 2010
Around the grounds on the pokies
Firstly, have a look at this site, Pokie Detox, which was launched on November 23 and is a really interesting idea.
Elsewhere, Jason Dowling had this cracking story in The Age: Device dodges ATM ban at pokies
Have a listen to Jon Faine talking with executive director of Clubs Victoria, Richard Evans, about these pseudo ATMs in pokies venues.
Also, here are the links which explain the Victorian Local Governance Association pokies position:
Major parties must make pokies and online gambling safe
VLGA State election platform
Launch speech by Whittlesea's Felicity Leahy
Meanwhile, check out this package of past encounters with Woolies and this interview with Senator Nick Xenophon about why the pokies matter in this state election.
A plug from the financial markets
Whilst you're never going to get an endorsement out of the mainstream media (let alone a mention in the Herald Sun) it was nice of FNArena editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck to send the following to the 30,000 people on the email list for his independent financial news services this week:
Former founder and editor of larrikin online news and commentary service Crikey, Stephen Mayne, is trying to get elected at the upcoming ballot box contest in Victoria. Last time we exchanged emails, last week, Stephen told me he believed he stood a good chance of getting elected. If I could put in a word of extra support to FNArena readers and subscribers in Victoria? I think people like Stephen Mayne play an important role in society overall. Certainly, Australia would be a lot poorer, more than the country realises, if it wasn't for people such as Stephen. For those who care to know: Stephen has refound a new life as shareholder activist, via the online The Mayne Report. If you happen to live in Victoria, and you agree with me that an elected Stephen Mayne could make a difference, than maybe you know whom to vote for?
The Cornwall collection
Former Fairfax and Crikey cartoonist Mark Cornwall has been contributing to The Mayne Report since March 2009. Here is a collection of his best cartoons and check out his latest animation below:
Donate to help keep fund shareholder activism, political tilts and defamation defence
The Mayne Report costs almost $100,000 a year to run so if you fancy giving us a hand to help fund our activism, defend heavy defamation threats and keep us going on the political and AGM circuit, just click on the image below:
Sign up for campaign and governance Tweets
Click on the image above to join more than 2700 followers on Twitter. Here are some recent tweets:
11.27am November 24: Have submitted motion for Nov 30 council meeting reacting to defo threat. See http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/24-0837-9782.html
9.37am November 24: Listen to this "bet each way" 2UE interview about Paul Hogan investigation fiasco: http://video.maynereport.com/audio/2UE_231110.mp3
8.35am November 24: Watch videos of gaming minister, shadow, small parties & yours truly at pokies forum yesterday http://video.maynereport.com/pokiesForum.html
8.30am November 24: Asked governance questions at City of Yarra council meeting last night on councillor expenses, audio on web and executive salary disclosure
11.51pm November 21: The RSPT tax grab politicised a whole generation of miners - hence Gina Rinehart buying 10% of Channel Ten for political protection.
7.17pm November 21: Have copped a very heavy defamation threat . See big edition just sent: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/21-1539-4305.html
2.37pm November 21: QR started trading at noon. My prediction is a range of $2.52 to $2.67 with close of $2.61. Declined to participate due to cash flow issues.
2.32pm November 21: How bizarre for activist fund to be given largest allocation in QR float. See http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101122/pdf/31v0zj9bpg270x.pdf
12.01pm November 21: Baillieu just fudged Sex Party preference deal with Jon Faine when the Libs accepted the p*rn industry's proposal lock, stock and barrel.
That's all for now.
Having sat up all night doing this, I can't be sure when the next missive will arrive as falling short on Saturday would be a big downer given the big effort we've put in. Still, we live in hope and would love to hear from any extra booth volunteers by email to Paula@maynereport.com.
Do ya best and well done if you got all the way to the bottom, Stephen Mayne
* The Mayne Report is a multi-media governance website published by shareholder activist, local government councillor, Crikey founder and political candidate Stephen Mayne with regular email editions. This email was authorised by Paula Piccinini of 205 William St, Melbourne 3000. To unsubscribe from the free emails click here.
In this final missive before election day we've got plenty of lively material so click here for the URL if you'd like to send it on. Alternatively, click here to unsubscribe.
Firstly, it's been a rather busy period engaging with the media on a range of issues and here's some of the diverse action of late on radio:
774 ABC Melbourne Independents forum - joined Jon Faine, Phil Cleary and Fiona Patten for a lively debate this morning.
3AW Melbourne - with Neil Mitchell on 3AW yesterday about the pokies during his traditional "whackos and fringe dwellers" session.
ABC radio's PM program - discussing the anti-siphoning laws and sports rights before the big announcement yesterday.
2UE Sydney - discussing Paul Hogan's tax reprieve after an appearance on Seven News (see press room below) last Tuesday.
Pokies finally get an airing during scrap with Neil Mitchell
First up in terms of the Victorian election campaign, do have a listen to this pokies tax slug-fest with Neil Mitchell on 3AW yesterday. Carrying on about the tax rises required if the pokies are phased out just completely misses the point - the pokies are the most regressive and socially damaging way to raise revenue.
It has been hard yards getting the pokies onto the agenda this campaign. Gabi Byrne did a great job pulling together the big pokies forum on Tuesday, but as we explained in this Crikey story on Wednesday, the mainstream media didn't front.
Standing next to Gaming Minister Tony Robinson and his shadow Michael O'Brien and labelling their respective policies "pathetic" was a highlight of the campaign and it was good that Woolies pokies boss Ross Blair-Holt turned up to hear it all as well.
We brought our own cameras to the forum and have created a video playlist of all the highlights, and there were plenty. Just click on the image of Tim Costello below to see the speeches by all the major players:
In terms of standing and delivering, the pokies effort was almost as much fun as this speech in front of 1000 women at the Melbourne Town Hall a few months back or this 12 minute exchange with Rupert Murdoch in New York in October.
The Age says we're in with a chance
Tim Colebatch from The Age understands the upper house preference voting system better than most and has pulled together this summary of all the upper house possibilities in today's paper. We're heartened to be rated a chance as follows:
In the most bizarre preference deal of the campaign, the Liberals, Labor and the Country Alliance are all directing preferences to Sex Party leader Fiona Patten. Journalist Stephen Mayne, an independent, has a chance, as does the DLP's John Kavanagh, brother of Peter. If none of them scores enough votes to matter, it will come down to Liberals versus Labor, with Greens de facto leader Greg Barber set to hold his seat - and the balance of power.
Why the decision of a Green senator's relative means the Sex Party won't win
Ironically, The Sex Party got all those first preferences coming towards them but nothing of use from the Group it gave its first preference to in Northern Metro, namely the Independent Parents and Carers, who also have the benefit of the donkey vote as Group A on the ballot paper.
We're swapping first preferences with the Parents and Carers Group who are then going to the Greens ahead of the Sex Party. Could this high preference for the Greens from the Parent and Carers be because their lead candidate, Joanne Stuart, is related to South Australian Greens Senator, Sarah Hanson-Young?
The Parents and Carers actually have the best preference flow of anyone so it would be strategic for Green supporters in Northern Metropolitan to vote for Group A as this could deliver a second defacto Green, on top of Greg Barber who is a dead cert to get up.
Joanne Stuart is an impressive candidate who has experience working in unions and is the parent of child with a disability. Like many carers, she's passionate about the need for a National Disability Insurance Scheme as independent Andrew Wilkie pressured Julia Gillard on during Question Time yesterday.
Clearly, despite whatever discussions led The Sex Party to preference Joanne Stuart first, she wasn't prepared to reciprocate to a group which, at the end of the day, is an extension of the p*rn lobby, albeit with quite detailed libertarian philosophies laid out on their website.
The Sex Party structured all of their preference deals to get Fiona Patten elected. They were extremely promiscuous with both major parties which were, to their profound discredit, prepared to play ball to win Sex Party preferences in a series of key lower house marginal seats.
For instance, the crusading Frenchman Serge Thomann has run a cracking campaign as an independent in Albert Part, but if the Port Phillip councillor falls short it will probably be because he was sold out by the Sex Party which delivered preferences to Labor ahead of him.
Socialist independent and feisty Yarra councillor Stephen Jolly was equally indignant when the Sex Party went to Labor ahead of him in Richmond.
Usually, small parties try to stick together and help each other, but the Sex Party ditched many minor comrades as part of their pact with the two majors, all of which will probably come to nought in terms of the ultimate strategy of getting Fiona Patten elected because of Sarah Hanson-Young's cousin.
Wackos, fringe dwellers and the struggle to get heard
This story was submitted to Crikey yesterday but didn't make the cut, which is sort of ironic given its content. Not that we're complaining given we filed late with little warning it was coming and Crikey had plenty of other good state election material. We'll be serving up one final Crikey election story for today's edition:
It is a tradition for minor parties and independents to complain about lack of media attention during an election battle and this Victorian campaign has been no different.
Despite all this attention on independents coming out of Canberra, the mainstream media have slavishly followed the major parties.
The Greens are obviously receiving plenty of increased attention, but they have also found themselves subjected to quite extraordinary hostility from the Murdoch press and right wing shock jocks.
Neil Mitchell has been presenting the Morning program for more than 20 years on 3AW and studiously ignores the minor players.
However, it has become something of a tradition on the Thursday before polling day for Mitchell to play the theme song from Monty Python's Flying Circus and then encourage all the “whackos and fringe dwellers” to call in.
Such an approach obviously demeans hundreds of genuine people attempting to engage in a democratic process. Mitchell is basically saying that anyone other than a Liberal or Labor candidate is a nutter.
Mitchell opened up with the Greens candidate for Richmond, Kathleen Maltzahn, who got absolutely mauled over a proposal to lower speed limits around schools and provide greater encouragement to cyclists.
Secondly, we had Mitchell interviewing a 20-year-old kid running in the upper house region of Eastern Metro who had some odd-ball approach to zombies and paint balling. Case proven – one odd ball equals 200 nutters across the DLP, Family First, Sex Party, Country Alliance and independent spectrum, according to Mitchell.
I was third cab off the rank shortly before 10am and Mitchell went ballistic because taxes would have to be increased to pay for a reduction in pokies revenue. Too right, Neil. Any tax is better than a pokies tax, which is the most regressive and damaging method for government to fund its budget.
Have a listen to the interview which bristles with hostility and finishes with a spray about accurate journalism and some unexplained slight many years ago.
When some of Mitchell's callers complained about his demeaning approach, he arrogantly declared all minor players “deserve it”.
Several of the candidates got blasted about costings, as if to suggest they could get Treasury involved or would ever have the power to actually implement their policies.
As Mitchell wrapped his program with a highlights package just before midday, he ran an extended extract from our pokies tax stoush and then cut to some caller who was commenting on the “zombie” candidate saying “please tell me that independent nut-job isn't running for parliament”. Thanks, mate!
It doesn't get much easier in newspaper land, either.
Herald Sun boss Peter Blunden has long imposed a ban on any mention of yours truly courtesy of critical coverage ever since the original 18,000 word treatise about Jeff Kennett on jeffed.com. Blunden looks like achieving the status of being the only newspaper boss who managed zero mentions through both state and federal tilts.
If Blunden maintains the ban in Saturday's paper and achieves another milestone in abusing media power for petty personal reasons, the response will be a repeat of the popularly backed shareholder resolution for Rupert Murdoch at next year's News Corp AGM in New York proposing an end to his gerrymander which denies 70% of shares the vote. Your choice, Peter. The boss won't thank you.
The AFR has also long imposed a ban thanks to 1999 criticisms of CEO Michael Gill so after numerous unsuccessful story pitches in recent months, I set upon the tactic of giving them an embarrassing scoopette.
The AFR's Victorian political reporter Matthew Dunckley, a former Bracks government staffer, was dutifully informed that I'd applied for the chief executive role at the Australian Shareholders' Association earlier this month but was rejected. It's disappointing and true.
Bingo, three paragraphs in Rear Window about the “serial job application lodger” having “yet another unsuccessful tilt”. Oh well, you know what they say about all publicity.
At least 774 ABC Melbourne's Jon Faine has agreed to a half hour segment for the independents this morning after 9.30am.
As for The Age, there was little coverage of the minor players with the exception of Phil Cleary's strong tilt at Brunswick, but at least Tim Colebatch analysed the scenarios in the upper house today.
If a couple of minor players do land seats in the upper house, the public certainly won't be able to say they were informed of the prospect by comprehensive media coverage, just as no-one covered Steve Fielding's successful Senate tilt and everyone ignored the DLP which also scored a Senate seat in the last Federal election.
Twenty more volunteers needed to help make history
With almost 80 booth workers committed for Saturday we're getting close to the point where a winning primary vote of 1.5%-plus is in sight, although it would be great to persuade another 20 or so volunteers today to sign up and help us fully distribute the 100,000 how to vote cards.
Even if it's only for a two hour slot we've got some lovely booths available and you could be a part of history if an independent cracks the upper house for the first time. Would anyone like to take over from Joan at Hurstbridge Primary School at 11am or close out the day with a 4-6pm stint?
How about Carlton Primary School where the locals are always interesting. We could do with more coverage in Thornbury and then there's the likes of Moreland Primary or Fairfield Primary.
Paula and I toured 30 booths on Federal election day and we had the most fun up in Broadmeadows given the amazing multi-cultural melting pot that really appreciates candidates and volunteers who take them seriously. Voters in safe Labor seats like John Brumby's Broadmeadows tend to be taken or granted.
We've got the big Broadie booths covered in the morning but we'd love to hear from anyone up for a slot in the afternoon.
Why not give Paula a call on 0411 483 176 or email the recovering barrister, running mate and RACV director on Paula@maynereport.com if you're available.
I've got a real sense that history could be made tomorrow with the first successful independent tilt at the upper house and you could be part of it.
If we've got you toying with the idea, click on the image below to watch a video which explains the voting system, candidates and policies related to the eminently winnable run in the Northern Metropolitan region:
The material you'd be handing out
With 50 boxes each containing 2000 how-to-vote cards, we've been charging around Melbourne dropping them off and have the final 20 boxes to distribute today and Saturday morning.
We've got 100,000 double-sided colour A4 how-to-vote cards and spent $3800 having them printed. They also make for an effective flyer so if you've got them in the Northern Metropolitan region, feel free to drop a few in letter boxes around the neighbourhood today or turn up to one of the early voting centres listed below.
There are two versions of the HTV and we've printed 70,000 on green for the inner city and 30,000 on yellow for the Northern suburbs. The messages are only slightly different.
All of them have the same reverse with a map of the electorate, some text explaining the likely prospects and voting system and then some messages in Greek, Italian, Arabic and Chinese.
There's a small picture of Senator Nick Xenophon with the Greek message and a picture of the happy married couple turned running mates "Stefano e Paola" with the Italian message. Click here for the full PDF of that.
We've also had 60 A3 colour posters laminated and these are being distributed to some volunteers starting at 8am on booths with plenty of mesh fencing - more likely schools than churches.
Taking on Family First in the growth areas
We've had no problems filling the major booths in seats like Richmond and Ivanhoe with volunteers coming from Manningham and the leafier suburbs south of the river, but there are still gaps in the likes of Yan Yean and Mill Park which are now two of the biggest electorates in the state thanks to all the new estates.
For instance, how's this for the eight largest booths in Mill Park
Mill Park Secondary College: 4116
Plenty Parklands Primary School: 3479
Mill Park Heights Primary School: 3467
Findon Primary School, Mill Park: 3458
Lalor East Primary School: 3367
Lalor North Secondary College: 2786
Peter Lalor Secondary College: 2785
Mill Park Primary School: 2723
South Morang Primary School: 2637
That's 9 booths with 28,818 voters
And compare that with only 4 booths above 2000 voters in low-growth Preston:
Preston West Primary School: 3174
Reservoir Views Primary School: 2622
Preston Primary School: 2488
St Gabriels School, Reservoir: 2097
It really is well over time for a redistribution when you have seats with 20,000 more voters than others.
Family First will be smothering the booths in Mill Park and Yan Yean where they do well with young families in new estates, whereas our focus is on the inner city given our Senate vote was strongest where the Green vote was high.
That said, as we explained in this missive on November 15, our main challenge on Saturday is to get ahead of Family First after receving preferences from the Independent Parents and Carers group, so it makes sense to directly compete with Family First in their strongest booths - hence the need for a few more volunteers.
Expecting another big vote below the line
Voters always take an interest in the above-the-line preference tickets and all those for Northern Metro are available on the VEC website. Our arrangements are explained here.
In the last two upper house elections I've contested, no other candidate has received a higher proportion of votes below the line, which suggests support from informed voters who really care where their preferences finish. It is much easier to vote below the line in Victoria because numbering the minimum of 5 boxes 1 to 5 constitutes a valid vote, which is very different from the Senate where every box has to be filled in.
In the 2010 Senate contest, Paula and I got 4738 votes and despite the fact that voters had to fill in all 62 boxes, the below the line vote was 1896 of the total or some 40% which was the highest proportion in a country which averaged 97% above the line.
At the 2006 state election in Southern Metropolitan, 35.6% of our vote was below the line, when the average was less than 10% across Victoria.
These 4797 first preference votes only delivered 3088 votes directly to the Democrats who were getting the second preference. Those who went below the line clearly preferred the Greens with 841 votes, followed by Labor's Evan Thornley with 360 votes and the Liberals with 317 votes.
Attracting the educated inner city Green voters
The challenge on Saturday is clearly to persuade inner city Green voters to vote below the line in numbers and go our way first. They know lead Greens candidate Greg Barber is home and hosed and that the second Green, Alex Bathal, is a quality candidate who will struggle to win.
For those who would like to broaden the upper house gene pool by tipping out Labor's little known "son of a union boss" Nathan Murphy, the best option is a vote for us or the Independent Parents and Cares group who both ultimately end up preferencing the Greens ahead of Liberal and Labor.
For those concerned about the Greens, a vote for us is arguably the best way to stop the second Green getting elected. But you shouldn't be worried about Alex Bathal who will serve with distinction in parliament one day. Just probably not this time.
In terms of other minor party prospects on Saturday, The Australian Sex Party is an outside chance as discussed above. The DLP is a slightly better chance because it picks up all the Right wing christian preferences, but again, even if you add all of these up along with the Liberal surplus, it is hard to see how their candidate John Mulholland, who is an effective Moreland councillor, can get to a quota of 16.7%.
In terms of where our preferences finish, the most likely scenario is with the Greens but this probably won't be enough to get them ahead of Labor who will benefit from all of the Right wing preferences ahead of the Greens. This is what makes a Labor win in the race for the fifth spot the most likely scenario. And this is what really ought to be avoided given the Labor candidate in question, as was explained in this missive to 3000 lawyers revealing that Julian Burnside QC was endorsing our tilt.
Preferences coming our way
In terms of preferences flowing to us, we've got a first preference from Family First and the Greens, both of which were negotiated during the Senate campaign and don't have to be reciprocated on Saturday.
There's an additional first preference swap with the Independent Parents and Carers Group and then both the DLP and The Australian Sex Party are coming to us ahead of the majors and most minors.
All up, it represents an excellent flow from the left and the right. Any primary vote above 1.5% and we're in with a show.
Early voting centres getting busy
Whilst the weather was pretty ordinary yesterday, it would be great if anyone fancies dropping into an early voting centre at lunch time today or for the late rush after 4pm.
Early voting is on the rise and it progressively gets busier leading up to polling day.
Check out the full list of early voting centres across Victoria and the 11 in Northern Metro are as follows starting in the south and moving north:
Melbourne (the busiest voting centres but they are not all from Northern Metropolitan)
Ground floor, Casselden Place, 2 Lonsdale St
Victoria University: level 12, 300 Flinders St
Ground floor, 565 Bourke St
Richmond: 187 Bridge Rd
Brunswick: Unit 2/21-27 Brunswick Rd, East Brunswick
Northcote: 100A Bell St, Preston
Ivanhoe: 53 Burgundy St, Heidelberg
Bundoora: 9/13 Flintoff St, Greensborough
Preston: 203 Edwardes St, Reservoir
Mill Park: Unit 3/19 Enterprise Drive, Bundoora
Thomastown: 210 Mahoneys Rd, Thomastown
Broadmeadows: The Gateway Business Park Office, C1, 1-13 The Gateway, Broadmeadows
Yan Yean: 802 Heidelberg-Kinglake Rd, Hurstbridge
Watching the count on Saturday night
After booths close on Saturday, we'll be heading back to our house and all volunteers are welcome to come around from 6.15pm onwards for a barbecue and to watch the vote. It could turn into quite a party if things go well.
How the ads appeared across the Murdoch local papers in Northern Metro
Whilst the ongoing ban in the Herald Sun has prevailed through both the Federal and State election, there has been some limited coverage in the network of News Ltd suburban giveaways throughout Northern Metropolitan, such as this website only piece about preference deals and this website only story about Whittlesea Council.
We also spent $2300 on ads in eight Leader newspapers and the results were as follows:
Moreland Leader: bottom of page 14.
Heidelberg Leader: middle of page 9.
Hume Leader: bottom of page 5.
Melbourne Leader (Melbourne electorate): bottom of page 9.
Melbourne Leader (Richmond electorate): bottom left of page 9.
Northcote Leader: middle of page 9.
Whittlesea Leader: middle of page 32.
Preston Leader: top of page 12.
Diamond Valley Leader: top right of page 9, and they also ran the story below next to the ad.
Do you know these 400,000 people?
The other way you can help is to identify voters who live within the 11 lower house seats pictured below that comprise the Northern Metropolitan region. Drop them an email and tell them an independent backed by the likes of Julian Burnside QC and Senator Nick Xenophon is in with a chance off knocking off "faceless man" Nathan Murphy, the little-known number three on the Labor ticket who got the gig partly because his dad is a powerful union boss.
Surely the state upper house could do with a lively independent rather than yet another union boss when 80% of ALP Senate positions will be filled by former union officials after June 30 next year. Here's the map that matters for those Northern Metro voters:
With a campaign budget limited to about $10,000 we can't afford to write to individual voters, but we need at least 6000 of the 400,000 voters to vote for "Group C" on the big yellow ballot paper to be in with a chance. It was certainly encouraging to receive emails like one from a chap in Diamond Creek who said he'd persuaded 10 friends to support our tilt in the upper house.
Pressuring councillors into disclosing their expenses - Yarra latest to be questioned
As we pointed out in this video filmed outside the Fitzroy Town Hall, disclosure of councillor expenses is an easy reform that should be embraced by everyone.
During 10 visits to Northern Metro council meetings over the past few months, the most resistance we've encountered so far was from veteran Labor Right Darebin councillor Steven Tsitas, whose wife works for local Northcote MP and Labor Party powerbroker Fiona Richardson.
We gave Tsitas a touch up in this Crikey tips section on October 5 for railing against such disclosure and then really put him on the spot at the council meeting two weeks ago.
It shouldn't be too long before Darebin follows the Hume or Moreland model of quarterly or annual online disclosures of councillor expense claims.
If there is to be a maiden speech delivered in the upper house, it will name all Victorian councils presently refusing to regularly disclose their individual councillor expense claims. Sadly, that still includes Manningham.
We also attended our first City of Yarra council meeting on Tuesday night and was quite impressed with the quality of the debate. If only all councillors could talk like most of the Yarra crew. The likes of Independent Jacqui Fristacky and Labor's Josh Funder are proven performers and acting mayor Geoff Barbour also seemed right across his brief.
However, when quizzed about the complete failure to disclose councillor expenses the excuses were pretty lame, with one councillor simply saying the expense claims were small. Well, how do we know that if there is no disclosure?
A final pre-election update from the Manningham circus
Manningham councillors and first time state Labor candidates Ivan Reid and Charles Pick have been distracted from their low-profile campaigns in the state seats of Bulleen and Doncaster respectively and are getting pretty energised about some of our recent missives, especially after the November 18 edition.
C'mon guys, don't get distracted from the main game. That 33.58% Labor primary vote in Bulleen and the 32.67% in Doncaster back in 2006 needs to be defended. Any retreat won't look good.
Matters are certainly coming to a head over the long-running saga of the Planning Minister's intervention and fast track for the $15 million redevelopment of the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home in our Green Wedge zone where nursing homes are expressly prohibited.
The Councillor Conduct Panel findings into deputy mayor and On Luck boss Fred Chuah is expected to be released in time for next Tuesday's council meeting. In other words, it's imminent.
After the full board of the nursing home developer made those heavy defamation threats we covered in our last edition, I submitted the following notice of motion for public debate next Tuesday:
Council notes with concern recent written threats by Chinese Community Social Services Centre Incorporated (CCSSCI) to launch defamation proceedings against Manningham councillors Stephen Mayne and David Ellis in relation to public debate about the proposed expansion of the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home in Donvale.
Council notes that the threatened action as detailed relates, in part, to the reiteration of the advice and published opinion of council officers which was unanimously endorsed by Council in February 2010.
Council further calls on all proponents of major developments in Manningham to respect the rights of councillors to speak freely, where this is consistent with the Local Government Act, to constituents and the community about planning proposals and planning process.
Council calls on CCSSCI and all such service partners of Council to respect the partnership and also to respect the interests of Manningham ratepayers before promoting unnecessary and costly legal disputation with Council or individual councillors.
Cr McMillan comes out swinging
This has triggered all sorts of fire-works from Fred's backers on council. For instance, click here to read this straight-talking letter in the Manningham Leader from Cr Graeme McMillan calling for my resignation.
Cr McMillan's attempts to talk up the mayor's achievements shows their relationship has come a long way since a late night car park confrontation (yes, another one!) in February last year which finished with the mayor writing a very stern letter to Cr McMillan.
We were also most amused to read this story in The Sunday Age last week trumpeting Park Orchards as having the lowest crime rate in Melbourne.
Cr McMillan hails from Park Orchards and his Park Orchards running mate in the last council election, Paul Slattery, has a large number of minor convictions for offences such as breaching intervention orders.
Indeed, after years of harrassing the council, Mr Slattery was banned in 2009 and has publically railed against the move ever since. We've had to call the police about 10 times over the past 18 months because he keeps turning up to meetings and abusing all and sundry in quite outrageous terms.
Somehow, Victoria's electoral laws have allowed Paul Slattery to contest the state seat of Warrandyte as an independent candidate tomorrow. Mr Slattery is one fringe-dwelling candidate who 3AW's Neil Mitchell should have torn strips off yesterday.
It is passing strange how Cr McMillan is now tearing strips off me and calling for a resignation, when he is yet to publically criticise the continuing outrageous behaviour of Paul Slattery.
Cr McMillan would be best served if he dumped all the negative baggage his little group holds towards a well-run council and instead accepts that Manningham's 700-plus staff do a great job. We certainly don't have 500 staff too many, as has been heard before from Cr McMillan.
Cr McMillan is a self-styled governance guru with an audit background who runs the grandly named CIPTA International which is trumpeting its latest upcoming event online as something in 2005.
However, it has been very disappointing not to get any support whatsover from Cr McMillan on the governance concerns around the On Luck Chinese Nursing Home planning process.
The musings of Labor candidate Ivan Reid
At one point we had our deputy mayor potentially voting on a proposal to recommend the contracting out of management of council's own nursing home when as CCSSCI's chairman, when asked, he wasn't able to rule out bidding. I sent a very strongly worded email around about what in my opinion was a very obvious conflict of interest as we headed towards a big decision a few weeks back and the following came back from Labor councillor Ivan Reid:
Colleagues, I was just reading a Marvel Comic and felt a creative urge to write some fanciful prose. Indulge me, dear friends, as I share my simple story ...
"It was a slow news day and journalists across Motham City were yawning and scratching their ar. ... Then suddenly, with a wave of his puerile pen, the Avenging JJE struck again! Cast out of home at an early age, the JJE is a pathetic, hollow-eyed wannabe, seeking to feel important by pontificating upon things he has no right nor competence to judge. Distrusted by all and known as a cowardly backstabber of politicians, he prowls the halls of Motham City Hall, sucking up to the only ones who don't throw his cr*p into the cr*pper ... Eternally seeking to be a kingmaker, he is instead the perennial bridesmaid. Together with his trusty sidekick, the Looney Leprechaun, they seek stories where there are none and pronounce judgement upon their peers without fully understanding why. Sidelined and in the minority, they rail against democracy whilst supping with the looney Latham's of the world. Oblivious to their failings, as all madmen are, they are powerless against the Stick of Justice which will soon strike them down and their gnashing and wailing will fill the halls of hell (for their homes, they are long gone)." Stay tuned for the next thrilling instalment ....!
Disclaimer: this prose is purely fictional and no similarities to superheroes, villains or persons living or deceased is intended, nor should they be inferred. Anyone so doing will be laughed at scornfully and urged to seek psychiatric help, urgently.
PS. A prize of a copy of my Marvel Comic (2nd hand) to the first to guess what JJE stands for :-)
Try and raise a serious conflict of interest question and that comes back!. As a voter in the state seat of Bulleen, I can only stress that Labor candidate Ivan Reid will be last on my ballot.
For the record, Cr Chuah was an apology at the October council meeting so he did not participate in the debate or vote on the decision to retain our nursing home, something Cr McMillan was extremely unhappy about.
Finally on matters Manningham, check out this story in The Manningham Leader on Wednesday where Green councillor David Ellis dares Labor mayor Charles Pick to pursue civil assault charges for this so-called car park "karate chop".
One can only hope that this circus will end soon after the state election and the council AGM on December 7 when we get a new mayor. One possible circuit breaker would be an escape into state parliament where the focus on promoting good governance would hopefully have less shambolic scenarios to deal with.
Working constructively with council officers
At my first meeting with Manningham CEO Lydia Wilson in December 2008 after the council elections, she said: "Stephen, there is an enormous amount of fear in the building about you."
This was quite a shock, so over the the past two years I've worked very constructively with officers. Indeed, much of the effort at Manningham has gone into defending council officers from often uncalled for attacks and criticisms by fellow councillors. Manningham is a well run council with a strong management team and all us councillors need to ensure this remains the case.
The Manningham CEO has been quite rightly calling for less public commentary in recent times, but in the context of a state election campaign with three councillors contesting, my view is that free flowing political exchanges are to be expected. It should settle down after polling day, although these shock legal threats have the potential to cause more explosions.
Lydia certainly won't be happy when she reads this but there's an election on, I'm running on a platform of keeping Labor dominated councils honest and, sadly, there's an awful lot of material to work with at Manningham.
A summary of the philosophical offer in Northern Metro
As you might be able to tell reading this edition, the basic offer to the people of Northern Metropolitan is an independent MP who will:
* demand maximum transparency and accountability of state politicians;
* Stand up to bullies and those abusing power;
* Fight to dramatically reduce the $2.6 billion a year Victorians lose on the pokies;
* Push hard to improve the operations, quality and transparency of Victorian councils;
* Be fiercely independent of vested interests, be they developers, unions, corporates or media moguls;
* communicate widely Nick Xenophon-style on a range of issues across the media;
* continue selective shareholder activism with a focus on Melbourne-based companies;
* Argue strongly for Victoria's surging $25 billion state debt to be wound back; and
* Embrace multi-culturalism, refugees and action on climate change
Even RBA governor Glenn Stevens feels the need to downplay public debt
It was very strange to hear Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens make the following statement during the federal election campaign: "There is virtually no net public debt in the country at all in contrast to much of the developed world."
Whilst Rupert Murdoch's flagship newspaper Down Under, The Australian, loves to beat up on Labor governments irrespective of the facts sometimes, this recent splash pointing out that state government debt is projected to top $240 billion was a worthwhile piece of journalism.
I bumped into former Bendigo Bank managing director Rob Hunt in Bendigo three weeks ago and congratulated him on landing the tough job of chairing Treasury Corporation of Victoria, our state debt management authority.
He was told that debt disclosure by TCV is very poor. The Federal Government's own debt management website puts the gross debt figure at $152 billion and the bond issues have flowed as follows since our last update:
Wednesday, November 24, 2010: $800m tender of 8 year bonds expiring in January 2018 were sold for an average yield of 5.40% and was over-subscribed 3.7 times.
Friday, November 19, 2010: $700m tender of 4 year bonds expiring in October 2014 were sold for an average yield of 5.28% and was over-subscribed 3.7 times.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010: $500m tender of 10 year bonds expiring in April 2020 were sold for an average yield of 5.40% and was over-subscribed 5.2 times.
Friday, November 12, 2010: $700m tender of 6 year bonds expiring in July 2016 were sold for an average yield of 5.26% and was over-subscribed 4 times.
Tracking former political staffers
The Mayne Report has built and maintained dozens of fascinating lists over the past three years and a particular favourite theme is tracking where former federal political staffers finish. The three main lists are as follows:
Where Howard staffers finished up
Hawke-Keating staffers
Former Rudd staffers.
We always appreciate updates from tippers and have had a couple come in:
David Bushby: worked as an adviser to Jocelyn Newman. When she retired from Cabinet, he went to work as Chief of Staff to Sue Napier (then Tasmanian Leader of the Opposition). After that he took over Guy Barnett's PR firm when Barnett went to the Senate. He ran that until going to the Senate himself in 2007.
Lynne Gallagher: After a career in the Treasury, and as an adviser to Paul Keating, went on to work for Brian Howe as Chief of Staff (1991-1995), before taking on senior roles providing strategic economic advice to corporate Australia. Was working as Craig Emerson's senior economic adviser (2009-10) and is now with Simon Crean.
Recent email editions and updates
For first time readers, here are links to our recent editions since the state election tilt was first revealed:
Developer defamation threat, pokies, councillor expenses, Future Fund, Telstra, AWB and a great offer to campaign volunteers
Monday, November 22, 2010
Future Fund goes to war with Telstra, Woolies AGM wash-up, council pokies taxes and much more
Friday, November 19, 2010
Woolies anti-pokies campaign speech, Manningham mayor boxes on, campaigning for women, Bob Brown, pokies forum, HTVs, Rich List and then some
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Preferences revealed, sleazy deals, Cleary, questioning Bob Brown, The Age, soaring debt, videos, Cornwall and then some
Monday, November 15, 2010
Campaign lift off, Fairfax AGM, councillor expenses, pokies, SP Ausnet, Rich List, women directors, Spark scale back and much more
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Xenophon backs anti-pokies tilt, Packer, Ten, BHP, women directors, Rich List, state debt and much more
Friday, November 5, 2010
From the press room
3AW Melbourne - with Neil Mitchell on 3AW about the pokies during his traditional "whackos and fringe dwellers" session.
ABC PM - discussing the anti-siphoning laws and sports rights.
2UE Sydney - discussing Paul Hogan's tax reprieve after an appearance on Seven News (see press room below) last Tuesday.
Victorian gaming minister slams NSW pollies and industry
Crikey, November 24, 2010
Seven News Paul Hogan story on Sky News
Tuesday, November 24, 2010
Around the grounds on the pokies
Firstly, have a look at this site, Pokie Detox, which was launched on November 23 and is a really interesting idea.
Elsewhere, Jason Dowling had this cracking story in The Age: Device dodges ATM ban at pokies
Have a listen to Jon Faine talking with executive director of Clubs Victoria, Richard Evans, about these pseudo ATMs in pokies venues.
Also, here are the links which explain the Victorian Local Governance Association pokies position:
Major parties must make pokies and online gambling safe
VLGA State election platform
Launch speech by Whittlesea's Felicity Leahy
Meanwhile, check out this package of past encounters with Woolies and this interview with Senator Nick Xenophon about why the pokies matter in this state election.
A plug from the financial markets
Whilst you're never going to get an endorsement out of the mainstream media (let alone a mention in the Herald Sun) it was nice of FNArena editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck to send the following to the 30,000 people on the email list for his independent financial news services this week:
Former founder and editor of larrikin online news and commentary service Crikey, Stephen Mayne, is trying to get elected at the upcoming ballot box contest in Victoria. Last time we exchanged emails, last week, Stephen told me he believed he stood a good chance of getting elected. If I could put in a word of extra support to FNArena readers and subscribers in Victoria? I think people like Stephen Mayne play an important role in society overall. Certainly, Australia would be a lot poorer, more than the country realises, if it wasn't for people such as Stephen. For those who care to know: Stephen has refound a new life as shareholder activist, via the online The Mayne Report. If you happen to live in Victoria, and you agree with me that an elected Stephen Mayne could make a difference, than maybe you know whom to vote for?
The Cornwall collection
Former Fairfax and Crikey cartoonist Mark Cornwall has been contributing to The Mayne Report since March 2009. Here is a collection of his best cartoons and check out his latest animation below:
Donate to help keep fund shareholder activism, political tilts and defamation defence
The Mayne Report costs almost $100,000 a year to run so if you fancy giving us a hand to help fund our activism, defend heavy defamation threats and keep us going on the political and AGM circuit, just click on the image below:
Sign up for campaign and governance Tweets
Click on the image above to join more than 2700 followers on Twitter. Here are some recent tweets:
11.27am November 24: Have submitted motion for Nov 30 council meeting reacting to defo threat. See http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/24-0837-9782.html
9.37am November 24: Listen to this "bet each way" 2UE interview about Paul Hogan investigation fiasco: http://video.maynereport.com/audio/2UE_231110.mp3
8.35am November 24: Watch videos of gaming minister, shadow, small parties & yours truly at pokies forum yesterday http://video.maynereport.com/pokiesForum.html
8.30am November 24: Asked governance questions at City of Yarra council meeting last night on councillor expenses, audio on web and executive salary disclosure
11.51pm November 21: The RSPT tax grab politicised a whole generation of miners - hence Gina Rinehart buying 10% of Channel Ten for political protection.
7.17pm November 21: Have copped a very heavy defamation threat . See big edition just sent: http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/11/21-1539-4305.html
2.37pm November 21: QR started trading at noon. My prediction is a range of $2.52 to $2.67 with close of $2.61. Declined to participate due to cash flow issues.
2.32pm November 21: How bizarre for activist fund to be given largest allocation in QR float. See http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101122/pdf/31v0zj9bpg270x.pdf
12.01pm November 21: Baillieu just fudged Sex Party preference deal with Jon Faine when the Libs accepted the p*rn industry's proposal lock, stock and barrel.
That's all for now.
Having sat up all night doing this, I can't be sure when the next missive will arrive as falling short on Saturday would be a big downer given the big effort we've put in. Still, we live in hope and would love to hear from any extra booth volunteers by email to Paula@maynereport.com.
Do ya best and well done if you got all the way to the bottom, Stephen Mayne
* The Mayne Report is a multi-media governance website published by shareholder activist, local government councillor, Crikey founder and political candidate Stephen Mayne with regular email editions. This email was authorised by Paula Piccinini of 205 William St, Melbourne 3000. To unsubscribe from the free emails click here.