A message to our wonderful booth volunteers
November 26, 2010
Dear Confirmed Booth Volunteers,
Firstly, thank you so much for volunteering to help out on Saturday.
Our numbers are approaching 70 and with one last push over the next 48 hours we should be able to distribute most of the 100,000 double-sided colour A4 how-to-vote cards we've spent $3800 having printed. They also make for an effective flyer so if you've got them in the Northern Metropolitan region, feel free to drop a few in letter boxes around the neighbourhood.
There are two versions of the HTV and we've printed 70,000 on green for the inner city and 30,000 on yellow for the Northern suburbs. The messages are only slightly different.
All of the HTVs have the same reverse with a map of the electorate, some text explaining the likely prospects and voting system and then some messages in Greek, Italian, Arabic and Chinese.
There's a small picture of Senator Nick Xenophon with the Greek message and a picture of the happy married couple-turned-running mates "Stefano e Paola" with the Italian message. Click here for the full PDF of that.
We've also had 60 A3 colour posters laminated and these are being distributed to some volunteers starting at 8am on booths with plenty of mesh fencing - more likely schools than churches. They already have holes punched in and will only require garden or bread ties to secure.
We've had no problems filling the major booths in seats like Richmond with volunteers coming from south of the river but there are still gaps in the likes of Yan Yean and Mill Park which are now two of the biggest electorates in the state thanks to all the new estates.
For instance, how's this for the eight largest booths in Mill Park
Mill Park Secondary College: 4116
Plenty Parklands Primary School: 3479
Mill Park Heights Primary School: 3467
Findon Primary School, Mill Park: 3458
Lalor East Primary School: 3367
Lalor North Secondary College: 2786
Peter Lalor Secondary College: 2785
Mill Park Primary School: 2723
South Morang Primary School: 2637
That's 9 booths with 28,818 voters
And compare that with only 4 booths above 2000 voters in low growth Preston:
Preston West Primary School: 3174
Reservoir Views Primary School: 2622
Preston Primary School: 2488
St Gabriels School, Reservoir: 2097
It really is well over time for a redistribution where you have seats with 20,000 voters more than others.
Countering Family First in the growth areas
Family First will be smothering the booths in Mill Park and Yan Yean where they do well with all the young families in new housing estates, whereas our focus is on the inner city given our Senate vote was strongest where the Green vote was high.
That said, our main challenge on Saturday is to get ahead of Family First after receving preferences from the Independent Carers group, so it makes sense to directly compete with Family First in their strongest booths.
If we can get ahead of Family First, the only other way we could lose would be if the Labor votes collapses and 8% directly shifts to the Greens. However, based on the 2006 figures, Labor starts 16% ahead of the Greens in terms of the fifth spot and whilst the swing may be big in the inner city, it's hard to see that translating in Thomastown, Broadmeadows, Bundoora and Mill Park.
That said, it makes sense to concentrate on the inner city and try to take as many votes off the Greens as possible. The how to vote card is certainly designed with that in mind.
Explaining preferences and below the line voting
Some voters will no doubt ask where my preferences are going and the above-the-line preference ticket is not explained on the how to vote card. It is available here on the VEC website and goes as follows:
1. Mayne & Piccinini
2. Parents and Carers Group (the other grouped independents on the ballot with the benefit of the donkey vote)
3. The Australian Sex Party
4. DLP
5. Greens
6. Family First
7. Liberal
8. Labor
9. Country Alliance
Because the Sex Party and DLP are strongly opposed, my ticket is unlikely to please many people so if asked, talk up voting below the line.
In the last two upper house elections I've contested, no other candidate has received a higher proportion of votes below the line. It is much easier to vote below the line in Victoria because numbering the minimum of 5 boxes 1 to 5 constitutes a valid vote, which is very different from the Senate where every box has to be filled in.
In the 2010 Senate contest, Paula and I got 4738 votes and despite the fact that voters had to fill in all 62 boxes, the below the line vote was 1896 of the total or some 40% which was the highest proportion in a country which averaged 97% above the line. This was probably influenced by our decision to split our first preference equally between the Greens and Family First, which pleased no-one.
At the 2006 state election in Southern Metropolitan, I scored a whopping 35.6% of the vote below the line, when the average was less than 10% across Victoria.
These 4797 first preference votes only delivered 3088 votes directly to the Democrats who were getting the second preference. Those who went below the line clearly preferred the Greens with 841 votes, followed by Labor's Evan Thornley with 360 votes and the Liberals with 317 votes.
The challenge on Saturday is clearly to persuade inner city Green voters to vote below the line and go our way first. For those concerned about the Greens, a vote for us is arguably their best prospect of stopping a second Green in Alex Bathal getting elected, although Alex is actually a quality candidate.
In terms of other minor party prospects on Saturday, The Australian Sex Party is an outside chance if it can somehow get ahead of the Liberals who last time had a surplus of 6.6%. However, whilst Liberal and Labor are preferencing them first, they won't got out early and from the minors they only have prefences from us and the Greens so it is hard to see them winning.
The DLP is a slightly better chance because it picks up all the Right wing christian preferences, but again, even if you add all of these up along with the Liberal surplus, it is hard to see how their candidate John Mulholland, who is an effective Moreland councillor, can get to a quota of 16.7%.
In terms of where our preferences finish, the most likely scenario is with the Greens but this won't be enough to get them ahead of Labor who will benefit from all of the Right wing preferences ahead of the Greens. This is what makes a Labor win in the race for the fifth spot the most likely scenario.
Preferences coming our way
In terms of preferences flowing to us, we've got a first preference from Family First and the Greens, both of which were negotiated during the Senate campaign and don't have to be reciprocated on Saturday.
There's an additional first preference swap with the Independent Parents and Carers Group and then both the DLP and The Australian Sex Party are coming to us ahead of the majors.
All up, it represents an excellent flow from the left and the right. Any primary vote above 1.5% and we're in with a show. The complications of the preference system were first explained in this missive sent out on November 15. This video also attempts to explain the scenarios.
If asked, the basic pitch should be that the Greens and Liberals are home and hosed to win one spot each, so the main game is whether anyone can defeat Labor's number 3, Nathan Murphy, who is an unimpressive son of a union boss. The Greens and I are best placed to do this.
Some possible lines to deliver
The most obvious line when handing over a card is "Stephen Mayne, independent for the upper house"
However, you could also try the following:
"Stephen Mayne: stop the pokies".
"Stephen Mayne: something different in the upper house"
"Stephen Mayne: backed by Nick Xenophon" (especially to Greek voters)
"Stephen Mayne: keep your council honest"
"Stephen Mayne: support for multi-culturalism"
"Stephen Mayne: Group C in the upper house"
"Stephen Mayne: keep em honest"
"Stephen Mayne: clean up politics"
Try any version you like but it is always good to engage with voters.
Early voting centres getting busy
Whilst the weather is pretty ordinary today, it would be great if any of you who already have HTVs fancy dropping into an early voting centre this afternoon or tomorrow when they get really busy.
Early voting is on the rise and it progressively gets busier leading up to polling day.
Check out the full list of early voting centres across Victoria and the 11 in Northern Metro are as follows starting in the south and moving north:
Melbourne (not so good as you get voters from everywhere)
Ground floor, Casselden Place, 2 Lonsdale St
Victoria University: level 12, 300 Flinders St
Ground floor, 565 Bourke St
Richmond: 187 Bridge Rd
Brunswick: Unit 2/21-27 Brunswick Rd, East Brunswick
Northcote: 100A Bell St, Preston
Ivanhoe: 53 Burgundy St, Heidelberg
Bundoora: 9/13 Flintoff St, Greensborough
Preston: 203 Edwardes St, Reservoir
Mill Park: Unit 3/19 Enterprise Drive, Bundoora
Thomastown: 210 Mahoneys Rd, Thomastown
Broadmeadows: The Gateway Business Park Office, C1, 1-13 The Gateway, Broadmeadows
Yan Yean: 802 Heidelberg-Kinglake Rd, Hurstbridge
Finally, we'll keep updating this link over the next couple of days so keep an eye on it and feel free to send it around to any other potential booth workers.
Please email Paula on Paula@maynereport.com if you have any queries and on the day you can call either of us with Paula's mobile being (0411 483 176) and mine on (0412 106 241).
Watching the count on Saturday night
After booths close on Saturday, we'll be heading back to our house and all volunteers are welcome to come around from 6.15pm onwards for a barbecue and to watch the vote.
The address is 10 McLachlan St, Templestowe 3106 and if we do happen to have a win it will obviously be quite a party.
Please let us know if you're a chance to come for catering purposes and email Stephen@maynereport.com if you have any queries.
That's all for now.
Thanks again and do ya best, Stephen Mayne
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