State govt reporting cycles on gambling

July 2, 2023

Here is some data on state government budgets and forecast gambling tax revenues from over the years.

Queensland 2023-24 budget: total revenue forecast $87.6 billion with gambling forecast to bring in $1.83 billion or 2.1%, comprising $1001m from pokies, $418m from lotteries, $266m from wagering (racing and sports betting) and $142m from casinos. See page 87 of budget papers.

Victorian 2023-24 budget: total revenue forecast $89.3 billion with gambling forecast to bring in $2.56 billion or 2.87% with pokies delivering $1382 million, lotteries $672 million, racing and sports betting $303m and Crown Melbourne $207 million. See p164 of budget papers.

NSW: the 2023-24 budget is not being released until September but the 2022-23 budget forecast total revenue of $106.7 billion in 2023-24 and that gambling tax revenue would hit $3.5 billion or 3.28% of total revenue. This comprises $1147m from hotel pokies, $909 million from club pokies, $535m from lotteries, $506 million from racing and sports betting, $301m from casinos and $20m from other. See page 65 of budget papers.

Therefore, the three biggest states are forecasting to receiving $7.89 billion from gambling taxes in the 2023-24 financial year but this is only 2.78% of their combined total revenue of $283.6 billion.

Up in the Northern Territory, its 2023-24 budget is forecasting total revenue of $8.2 billion but only $104.8 million or 1.28% of this is forecast to come from gambling taxes with pokies delivering $53.1 million, lotteries $24 million, bookmakers $21.5 million, casinos $4.66 million, Betting Exchanges (Betfair) $1.35 million and wagering 266k. See page 69 of these budget papers.

Victoria:

State budget is in May each year and the 2017-18 gambling forecasts can be seen on page 155 of the statement of finances.

Release quarterly financial updates with break downs of each specific gambling tax - see latest September quarter 2017 figures with gambling data on page 9. See p15 of this document for the previous year. Pokies revenue in the first quarter of 17-18 was up $2m on the previous year to $281 so we can say growth has resumed after dropping $7m last year which reflected the extra day of a leap year in 2016.

For instance, Crown Melbourne reported actual gaming revenue of $1781.6m (excluding wagering) in 2017-18 and the 2018-19 state budget offered up a revised 2017-18 casino tax forecast of $227m. See p 142: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201819.budget.vic.gov.au/2018-19+State+Budget+-+Statement+of+Finances.pdf

That comes to 12.74%, which is even lower than the number I used for 2016-17. I'm guessing part of that $227m is an annual treasury allocation for the lump sum casino licence payments that have and will be paid by Crown Melbourne in the future. Your accounts show the licence fee payments in Melbourne are being amortised at $20m per year.

NSW

See p7 of the revenue section of the 2017-18 budget , plus this Alliance press release when the 2017-18 budget was released on June 20, 2017.

See latest figure on p37 of 2018-19 mid year budget update which factors in POCT and shows 2018-19 figures are tipped to be $2.5 billion.

Queensland 2017-18 budget

See gambling tax forecasts on p89 of the budget statements.

Latest pokies tax forecasts
2015-16 actual: $677m
16-17 est-actual: $687m (up $10m or 1.48%)
2017-18 forecast: 718m (up $31m or 4.51%)
2018-19: forecast: $750m (up $32m or 4.45%)
2019-20 forecast: $784m (up $34m or 4.53%)
2020-21 forecast: $819m (up $35m or 4.46%)

Growth over 4 years from July 1, 2017 until June 30 2021, projected to rise 20.6% or $132m to $819 million.

And this is what they said in 2018-19 on p56 of budget paper number 2.

2016-17 actual: $684m (up $7m or 1%)
2017-18 forecast: 718m (up $34m or 4.97%)
2018-19: forecast: $750m (up $32m or 4.45%)
2019-20 forecast: $784m (up $34m or 4.53%)
2020-21 forecast: $819m (up $35m or 4.46%)
2021-22 forecast $819m (flat)

South Australia

See page 47 of 2018-19 budget papers released on Sept 4, 2018

Pokies revenue finished $9m below budget at $267m in 2017-18 and is forecast to creep higher to $281m by 2021-22.

The point of consumption tax came in at $32m in 2017-18 against a budget of $30m, but $18m of the forecast $37m to be raised in 2018-19 will be on-passed to the racing industry.

Pokies revenue came in $18m below budget at $270m in 2016-17

2017-18: $276m forecast
2018-19: $282m
2019-20: $283m
2020-21: $285m

Insipid growth with revenue not expected to ever top the original overblown 2016-17 budget forecast - big contrast with Queensland and NSW.

A betting operations tax is forecast to bring in $30m for the first time in 2017-18 - that is the 15% point of consumption tax on the NT boys.

Western Australia

Point of consumption tax is explained on p79 of the 2017-18 budget papers. Aiming to start on January 1, 2019 with $19m for the half year followed by $40m after that.

Page 264 of the budget papers has 16-17 forecasts for different gambling taxes.

Tasmania

See p98 of 2017-18 budget papers - casino tax and licences fees pretty stagnant at $55m through forward estimates as follows:

2016-17: $56.4m
2017-18: $54.9m
2018-19: $55m2019-20: $55.2m
2020-21: $55.6m

See p82 of the 2018-19 budget papers showing the following forecasts:

Casino tax and licence fees combined

2017-18: $51.2m (down from $54.9m in original budget)
2018-19: $51m
2019-20: $50.9m
2020-21: $50.8m
2021-22: $50.6m

ACT

Page 231 of the 2017-18 budget papers show gaming taxes from pokies as:

16-17 est-actual: $34.1m
2017-18 forecast: $33.52m (down 500k or 2%)
2018-19: forecast: $36.24m (up $8.1% or 4.45%)
2019-20 forecast: $37.1m (up 850k or 2.3%)
2020-21 forecast: $37.9m (up 800k or 2.1%)

Page 234 of the 2018-19 budget papers show gaming taxes from pokies as follows:

2017-18 forecast: $34.2m
2018-19: forecast: $35.23m
2019-20 forecast: $37.08m
2020-21 forecast: $37.93m
2021-22 forecast: $38.83m

Northern Territory

p80 of the 2017-18 budget papers reveals all the gambling forecasts, with total receipts only $78m forecast for 2017-18.

Given that $1.2 billion was lost with NT licensed sports betting and corporate bookmakers in 2015-16 (up more than 25%) the $5.4m revenue forecast from this category for both 16-17 and 17-18 is a complete joke.

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State govt reporting cycles on gambling

July 2, 2023

Here is some data on state government budgets and forecast gambling tax revenues from over the years.